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Part A. Monetary Policy Statement
2009-10
I. Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments
Global Outlook
10. The global outlook has continued to deteriorate in the last
quarter with projections for global growth in 2009 undergoing rapid
downward revision. According to the IMF’s March 2009 forecast, global
growth is projected to shrink by 0.5 to 1.0 per cent in 2009 in
contrast to an expansion of 3.2 per cent in 2008. Other projections
are even more dire. The World Bank estimates global GDP to contract by
1.7 per cent and the OECD by as much as 2.7 per cent. In the US,
economic activity has declined sharply, driven mainly by the decline
in consumption and exports. The Euro area too is in a severe and
synchronised contraction. Reflecting sharp demand contraction,
consumer price inflation has reached near zero in several advanced
countries, raising concerns about sustained deflation on the way
forward. The unemployment rate in the US has risen to 8.5 per cent,
the highest since 1983. Unemployment rates in the Euro area, the UK
and Japan too increased significantly. The WTO projects that global
trade will shrink by 9.0 per cent in volume terms in 2009, down from
an increase of 2.0 per cent in 2008. Between 1990 and 2007, global
trade grew twice as fast as global GDP; in a sharp reversal of this
‘trade as the engine of growth’ paradigm, in 2009 global trade is
projected to shrink twice as much as global GDP.
11. In advanced countries, substantial injection of liquidity and
successive cuts in the policy rates have resulted in the softening of
short-term interest rates, particularly in the overnight segment.
However, the transmission to the credit market has been impaired,
suggesting that the process of deleveraging is incomplete, asset
prices have yet to stabilise and that credit spreads need to narrow
further. Banks and financial institutions are still in the process of
recognising losses arising out of off-balance sheet exposures. This
raises concerns about the extent of required recapitalisation, and
this uncertainty is inhibiting fresh lending. Most importantly, the
global financial system is yet to recover the forfeited trust and
confidence. Under the G-20 initiative, efforts are underway to
strengthen the global financial architecture and restore the global
growth momentum through co-ordinated actions.
Emerging Market Economies
12. The IMF projects that the GDP growth of EMEs will decelerate to
a range of 1.5-2.5 per cent in 2009, down from 6.1 per cent in 2008.
This downturn is clear evidence that the forces of globalisation are
too strong for the decoupling hypothesis to work. Even across EMEs,
there are wide variations: several countries are likely to post
negative growth, while significant positive contributions are expected
from China and India. The crisis spread from advanced countries to
EMEs, as is now clear, through both trade and finance channels. The
slump in export demand and tighter trade credit caused deceleration in
aggregate demand; reversal of capital flows led to equity market
losses and currency depreciations; global liquidity tightening
resulted in lower external credit flows to EMEs; and market rigidities
and erosion of confidence led to widening of credit spreads. Like
advanced countries, EMEs too responded to the challenge of managing
the crisis through fiscal and monetary actions, but these measures
will not have full impact until the global situation stabilises and
trade and credit flows are restored. The G-20 commitment to desist
from all forms of protectionism and to maintain open trade and
investment regimes is a source of comfort to EMEs in an otherwise
discouraging external environment.
Domestic Outlook
13.
Economic activity in India slowed down in Q1 and Q2 of 2008-09 as
compared with over 9.0 per cent growth in the previous three years.
However, growth decelerated sharply in Q3 following the failure of
Lehman Brothers in mid-September 2008 and knock-on effects of the
global financial crisis on the Indian economy. Consequently, the
growth rate during the first three quarters (April-December) of
2008-09 slowed down significantly to 6.9 per cent from 9.0 per cent in
the corresponding period of the previous year
(Table 1).
The advance estimates of the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO)
released in February 2009 have placed the real GDP growth for 2008-09
at 7.1 per cent. |
Table 1: Real GDP Growth (%)
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Agriculture |
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Industry |
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Services |
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Overall |
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Source: Central Statistical Organisation (CSO). |
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14.
The last Annual Policy Statement of the Reserve Bank released in
April 2008 placed real GDP growth for 2008-09 in the range of 8.0-8.5
per cent. Around that time, the IMF had projected the global growth
to be at 3.7 per cent in 2008. As the year progressed and the crisis
unfolded, economic prospects globally deteriorated rapidly and at home
in India in Q3 2008-09. Beginning July 2008, the IMF made frequent
reductions in its growth forecasts for 2008. The Reserve Bank too
reflected the deteriorating outlook by revising downward its growth
projection for India for 2008-09 to 7.5-8.0 per cent in the Mid-Term
Review (October 2008) and further down to 7.0 per cent with a downward
bias in the Third Quarter Review (January 2009). The downside risks
have since materialised and the GDP growth for 2008-09 is now
projected to turn out to be in the range of 6.5 to 6.7 per cent.
Agriculture
15. The second advance estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture
released in February 2009 have placed total foodgrains production in
2008-09 at 227.9 million tonnes, lower than the production of 230.8
million tonnes in the previous year. Subsequent information on good
sowing for rabi crops and the trend in procurement suggests
that agricultural production during 2008-09 may turn out to be better
than earlier anticipated.
Industry
16.
During 2008-09 so far (April-February), industrial growth based on
the index of industrial production (IIP), decelerated to 2.8 per cent,
down by more than two-third from 8.8 per cent in the corresponding
period of the previous year. While IIP growth was 5.0 per cent in the
first half of 2008-09, the average growth in the following five months
was insignificant (0.2 per cent). There, however, have been some
incipient positive signs. Although the IIP contracted by 1.2 per cent
in February 2009, machinery and equipment (other than transport
equipment) exhibited double digit growth. In terms of use-based
classification, capital goods production too registered double digit
growth. |
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Demand Components of GDP
17.
Private consumption and investment demand decelerated during Q3 of
2008-09. Government consumption demand, however, registered a sharp
increase, reflecting the partial payout of the Sixth Pay Commission
Award and other fiscal stimulus measures. As a result, the share of
government consumption demand in GDP increased significantly.
Deceleration in net exports growth in the successive quarters of
2008-09 had an adverse impact on the overall GDP growth
(Table 2). |
Table 2: Demand Components of GDP
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Private Final Consumption Expenditure |
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Government Final Consumption Expenditure |
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Gross Fixed Capital Formation |
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Net Exports |
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Share in GDP (%) |
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Private Final Consumption Expenditure |
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Government Final Consumption Expenditure |
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Gross Fixed Capital Formation |
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Net Exports |
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Source: Central Statistical Organisation (CSO). |
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Corporate Performance
18.
After registering robust growth during the five year period
2003-08, the performance of the private non-financial corporate sector
deteriorated in the first three quarters of 2008-09. Sales growth of
companies, which continued to be strong in Q1 and Q2, decelerated
sharply in Q3 of 2008-09. Net profits, which recorded an average
annual growth of over 40 per cent during 2003-08, recorded a
significantly lower growth in the first quarter of 2008-09. In the
second quarter, net profits declined, although gross profits continued
to increase, albeit marginally. In the third quarter, even
gross profits declined sharply
(Table 3).
Profit margins were eroded by higher input costs, increased interest
outgo, significant drop in non-sales income and losses on foreign
currency related transactions. While moderation in internal accruals
has an adverse effect on corporate investment, decline in input prices
and reduction in borrowing costs may have a favourable impact on
profitability going forward. |
Table 3: Private Corporate Sector
– Growth Rates (%)
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Sales |
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Expenditure |
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Gross Profits |
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Net Profits |
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Business
Confidence
19. The Industrial Outlook Survey of the Reserve Bank for
January-March 2009 indicates a further worsening of perception for the
Indian manufacturing sector. The overall business and financial
sentiment, which touched a seven-year low in the preceding quarter,
slid below the neutral 100 mark, for the first time since the
compilation of the index began in 2002. According to the survey, the
demand for working capital finance during January-March 2009 from
external sources dropped due to slowdown in business, even as the
availability of finance eased. The business confidence surveys
conducted by other agencies are also consistent with these findings.
Lead Indicators
20. In terms of lead indicators of the economy, economic activity
in several services sectors has been moderating. Cargo handled at
major ports, passengers handled at airports, railway freight traffic
and arrival of foreign tourists registered lower/negative growth.
Strong rural demand, lagged impact of monetary and fiscal stimuli,
softening of domestic input prices, investment demand from brown-field
projects and some restructuring initiatives are expected to have a
positive impact on industrial production in the months ahead.
Inflation
21.
Headline inflation, as measured by year-on-year variations in the
wholesale price index (WPI), decelerated sharply from its intra-year
peak of 12.91 per cent on August 2, 2008 to 0.26 per cent by March 28,
2009. In terms of relative contribution to the fall in WPI inflation
since August 2008, mineral oils and basic metals (combined weight 15.3
per cent in WPI) together accounted for over 83 per cent of the
decline reflecting global trend in commodity prices. The prices of
food articles, however, are still ruling high. The inflation based on
various consumer price indices (CPIs) continues to be near
double-digit level mainly reflecting a firm trend in prices of food
articles
(Table 4). WPI inflation declined
further to 0.18 per cent as on April 4, 2009. |
Table 4: Annual Inflation Rate (%)
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Wholesale Price Index (WPI)
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WPI - All Commodities |
7.75 |
0.26 |
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WPI - Primary Articles |
9.68 |
3.46 |
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WPI - Food Articles |
6.54 |
6.31 |
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WPI - Fuel Group |
6.78 |
-6.11 |
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WPI - Manufactured Products |
7.34 |
1.42 |
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WPI - Manufactured Food Products |
9.40 |
7.51 |
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WPI - Excluding Fuel |
8.01 |
2.01 |
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WPI - Excluding Food Articles and Fuel |
8.38 |
0.95 |
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Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Feb-08 |
Feb-09 |
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CPI - Industrial Workers |
5.47 |
9.63 |
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CPI - Agricultural Labourers |
6.38 |
10.79 |
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CPI - Rural Labourers |
6.11 |
10.79 |
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CPI - Urban Non-manual Employees # |
4.84 |
10.38 |
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.# Pertains to January. |
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22.
The analysis of the last four years suggests that WPI inflation
and CPI inflation moved, by and large, in tandem till April 2007.
Thereafter, inflation measured in WPI and CPI tended to diverge.
However, the divergence in the recent period has been unusually high
reflecting the volatilities in commodity prices which have a higher
weight in WPI
(Chart 1). With
the decline in WPI inflation, CPI inflation is expected to moderate in
the coming months. For its overall assessment of inflation outlook for
policy purposes, the Reserve Bank continuously monitors the full array
of price indicators.
Fiscal Scenario
23.
The finances of the Central Government in 2008-09 deviated
significantly from the Budget Estimates (BE). Higher revenue
expenditure together with lower revenue receipts led to a sharp
increase in the revenue and fiscal deficits. The deviation of deficit
indicators from the targets stipulated under the Fiscal Responsibility
and Budget Management (FRBM) Rules was on account of several fiscal
stimulus measures undertaken by the Government to boost aggregate
demand. The financing gap was met by enhancement of market borrowings
(Table 5). |
Table 5: Fiscal Position of the
Central Government: 2008-09
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1 |
Revenue Receipts |
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2 |
Capital Receipts |
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of which: Market Loans |
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3 |
Non-Plan Expenditure |
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4 |
Plan Expenditure |
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5 |
Revenue Expenditure |
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6 |
Capital Expenditure |
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7 |
Revenue Deficit |
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8 |
Fiscal Deficit |
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Notes : (i) The receipts are net of repayments. |
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(ii) Figures in parentheses are percentages to GDP. |
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24.
Because of the fiscal stimulus packages as also additional
post-budget items of expenditure, Central Government’s borrowing
during 2008-09 was substantially above the initial budget estimates.
In fact, the actual net borrowing was more than two and half times the
initial budget estimate
(Table 6). |
Table 6: Central Government
Borrowings: 2008-09
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Gross Borrowing * |
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Net Borrowing |
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* Pertains to dated securities and 364-day Treasury Bills. |
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25.
The net amount raised by the government by way of dated
securities, additional Treasury Bills and MSS de-sequestering
aggregated Rs.2,98,536 crore during 2008-09. In addition, special
securities (oil and fertiliser bonds) issued by the Central Government
outside the market borrowing programme amounted to Rs.95,942 crore in
2008-09. As against the initial estimate of Rs.47,044 crore, the State
Governments raised a net amount of Rs.1,03,766 crore during 2008-09
(Table 7).
The combined market borrowings of the Central and State Governments in
2008-09 were nearly two and half times their net borrowings in
2007-08. Even as the increase in borrowing was large and abrupt, it
was managed in a non-disruptive manner through a combination of
measures such as unwinding under the market stabilisation scheme
(MSS), open market operations and easing of monetary conditions. The
weighted average yield of Central Government dated securities issued
during 2008-09 was lower at 7.69 per cent as compared with 8.12 per
cent in the preceding year. The weighted average maturity of these
securities was 13.80 years, which was lower than 14.90 years in
2007-08. |
Table 7: Net Market Borrowings of
the Central and State Governments (Rs.crore)
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Item |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
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A. |
Central Government |
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i. |
Dated Securities |
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ii. |
Additional 364-day T-Bills |
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iii. |
Additional 182-day T-Bills |
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iv. |
Additional 91-Day T-Bills |
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v. |
MSS De-sequestering |
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B. |
State Governments |
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Total (A+B) |
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Memo Items: |
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i. |
Special Securities Issued outside the Market Borrowing Programme |
38,050 |
95,942 |
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ii. |
Net Issuances under MSS |
1,05,691 |
-81,781 |
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26.
Reflecting the continued need for fiscal stimulus in 2009-10, the
borrowing requirements of both the Central and State Governments are
estimated to be higher as compared with 2008-09
(Table 8).
27.
According to the borrowing calendar released for the first half
(April-September) of 2009-10, net market borrowings of the Central
Government are likely to be of the order of Rs.2,07,364 crore.
However, after adjusting for MSS unwinding and the Reserve Bank’s
support by way of open market operations, net supply of fresh
securities is expected to be of the order of Rs.85,364 crore.
Although the fresh supply of securities will be higher than the first
half of the last year, it will be of much lower order as compared with
the first half of 2007-08
(Table 9). |
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Table 8: Borrowings of the Central
and State Governments: 2009-10 |
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(Rs. crore) |
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Item |
Sep-08 |
Oct-09 |
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Central Government |
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Gross Market Borrowings |
3,18,550 |
3,98,552 |
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Net Market Borrowings |
2,98,536 |
3,08,647 * |
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State Governments |
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Net Market Borrowings |
1,03,766 |
1,26,000 ** |
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Total Net Market Borrowings |
4,02,302 |
4,34,647 |
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*
Interim Budget Estimates. |
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** Estimated. The State Governments have been allowed an
additional 0.5 per cent
of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) as a part of the fiscal
stimulus package. |
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Table 9: Central Government
Borrowings: First Half of the Fiscal Year |
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(Dated Securities) |
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(Rs. crore) |
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Item |
First Half (April-September)
Borrowings |
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Aug-07 |
Sep-08 |
Oct-09 |
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Gross Market Borrowings |
97,000 |
1,06,000 |
2,41,000 |
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Less: Repayments |
30,554 |
44,028 |
33,636 |
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Net Market Borrowings |
66,446 |
61,972 |
2,07,364 |
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Less: OMO Purchases |
0 |
0 |
80,000 |
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Less: MSS Unwinding* |
0 |
0 |
42,000 |
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Add: MSS Issuances (net)* |
69,077 |
5,263 |
0 |
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Net Supply of Fresh Securities |
1,35,523 |
67,235 |
85,364 |
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*
Includes dated securities and Treasury Bills. |
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28.
Keeping in view the large budgeted government market borrowing in
2009-10 coming on top of a substantial expansion in market borrowing
in 2008-09, it was important for the Reserve Bank to provide comfort
to the market so that the borrowing programme is conducted in a
non-disruptive manner. Accordingly, the Reserve Bank simultaneously
indicated its intention to purchase government securities under open
market operations (OMO) for an indicative amount of Rs.80,000 crore
during the first half of 2009-10.
29. To contain the growth slowdown during 2008-09, the Central
Government announced three fiscal stimulus measures during December
2008-February 2009. The Government had also provided additional
expenditure of Rs.1,48,093 crore (2.7 per cent of GDP) through two
supplementary demands for grants during October-December 2008. The
total revenue loss due to tax reductions amounted to Rs.8,700 crore
(0.2 per cent of GDP) in 2008-09 and Rs.28,100 crore (0.5 per cent of
GDP) in 2009-10. The additional stimulus measures during 2008-09 work
out to about 2.9 per cent of GDP. Furthermore, the revenue collection
was adversely impacted by the economic slowdown. Consequently, the
Interim Budget for 2009-10 revised the estimates for 2008-09 – revenue
deficit to 4.4 per cent and the fiscal deficit to 6.0 per cent of GDP
as against the budget estimates of 1.0 per cent and 2.5 per cent
respectively. In addition, special bonds amounting to 1.8 per cent of
GDP were issued to oil marketing companies and fertiliser companies
during 2008-09.
30. As per the Interim Budget 2009-10, the revenue deficit and the
fiscal deficit are projected to decline only moderately to 4.0 per
cent and 5.5 per cent respectively during 2009-10. The Government in
its macroeconomic framework statement, indicated that in view of the
compelling need to adjust the fiscal policy to take care of
exceptional circumstances through which the economy is passing, the
fiscal consolidation process has to be put on hold temporarily. The
process of fiscal consolidation should resume once there is an
improvement in economic conditions.
31. Currently available information indicates that the
consolidated budgeted revenue surplus of the States in 2008-09 may not
materialise. Consequently, the consolidated fiscal deficit of the
States is expected to rise to around 3.0 per cent of GDP. The combined
fiscal deficit of the Central and State Governments during 2008-09
would be about 9.0 per cent of GDP. Accounting for special securities
issued by the Central Government outside the market borrowing
programme, the combined fiscal deficit works out to about 10.8 per
cent of GDP. While some of the increase in the revenue and fiscal
deficits is on account of post-budget expenditure commitments such as
payment of arrears resulting from the Sixth Pay Commission Award, a
substantial increase is also due to the economic downturn arising from
the impact of the global financial crisis. Although the fiscal
stimulus packages have meant deviation from the roadmap laid out by
the FRBM Act, reversing the consolidation process of the last several
years, they were warranted under the prevailing circumstances. It is
critically important, however, that the Centre and States re-anchor to
a revised FRBM mandate once the immediacy of the crisis is behind us.
Monetary Conditions
32. Growth in key monetary aggregates – reserve money (RM) and
money supply (M3) – in 2008-09 reflected the changing liquidity
positions arising from domestic and global financial conditions and
the monetary policy response. Reserve money variations during 2008-09
largely reflected the increase in the currency in circulation and
reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of banks.
33.
As indicated in the Third Quarter Review, reduction in the CRR
has three inter-related effects on reserve money. First, it reduces
reserve money as bankers’ required cash deposits with the Reserve Bank
fall. Second, the money multiplier rises. Third, with the increase in
the money multiplier, M3 expands with a lag. While the initial
expansionary effect is strong, the full effect is felt in 4-6 months.
Reflecting these changes, the year-on-year increase in reserve money
in 2008-09 was much lower than in the previous year. However,
adjusted for the first round effect of CRR reduction, deceleration in
reserve money growth was less pronounced. The annual M3 growth in
2008-09, though lower compared with the previous year, was also below
the trajectory projected in the Third Quarter Review of January 2009
(Table 10).
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Table 10: Annual Variations in
Monetary Aggregates
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Reserve Money |
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Reserve Money (adjusted for CRR changes) |
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Currency in Circulation |
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Money Supply (M3) |
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M3 (Policy Projection) |
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Money Multiplier |
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*Policy projection for the financial year as indicated in the
Annual Policy Statement 2008-09 (April 2008). |
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**Policy projection for the financial year as indicated in the
Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy |
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2008-09 (January 2009). |
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34.
Monetary management during 2008-09 was dominated by the response
to the spillover effects of global financial crisis and the need to
address slackening of domestic demand conditions, especially during
the third quarter. As the Reserve Bank had to provide foreign exchange
liquidity to meet the demand from importers and contain volatility in
the foreign exchange market arising out of capital outflows by foreign
institutional investors (FIIs), its net foreign exchange assets (NFEA)
declined. This had an overall contractionary effect on rupee
liquidity. The Reserve Bank addressed this issue by providing rupee
liquidity through expansion of net domestic assets (NDA) by (i)
conventional open market operations; (ii) special 14-day term repo
facility for banks; (iii) buy-back of securities held under the
market stabilisation scheme; (iv) special market operations, including
the purchase of oil bonds; (v) enlargement of export credit refinance
window; (vi) special refinance facility for banks for addressing the
liquidity concerns of NBFCs, mutual funds and housing finance
companies; (vii) special refinance facility for financial institutions
(SIDBI, NHB and Exim Bank); and (viii) funding to NBFCs through a
special purpose vehicle (SPV). Thus, a notable feature of monetary
operations during the second half of 2008-09 was the substitution of
foreign assets by domestic assets. Consequently, liquidity conditions
have remained comfortable since mid-November 2008 as reflected in the
LAF window being generally in the absorption mode and the call/notice
rate remaining near or below the lower bound of the LAF corridor
consistent with the stance of monetary policy.
Credit Conditions
35. During 2008-09, the growth in non-food bank credit
(year-on-year basis) decelerated from a peak of 29.4 per cent in
October 2008 to 17.5 per cent by March 2009. At this rate, non-food
credit expansion was lower than that of 23.0 per cent in 2007-08 as
also the indicative projection of 24.0 per cent set in the Third
Quarter Review of January 2009. The intra-year changes in credit flow
could be attributed to several factors. First, the demand for bank
credit increased sharply during April-October 2008 as corporates found
that their external sources of credit had dried up, and shifted that
demand to domestic credit. Second, there was a sharp increase in
credit to oil marketing companies by Rs.36,208 crore during
April-October 2008 as compared with a decline of Rs.1,146 crore in the
corresponding period of the previous year. In the subsequent period,
however, the demand for credit moderated reflecting the slowdown of
the economy in general and the industrial sector in particular.
Working capital requirements had also come down because of decline in
commodity prices and drawdown of inventories by the corporates. The
demand for credit by oil marketing companies also moderated. In
addition, substantially lower credit expansion by private and foreign
banks also muted the overall flow of bank credit during the year
(Table 11). |
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Table 11: Bank Group-wise Growth in
Deposits and Credit |
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(Per cent) |
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Bank Group |
As on March 28, 2008
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As on March 27, 2009 |
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|
(y-o-y) |
(y-o-y) |
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Deposits |
|
Public Sector Banks |
22.9 |
24.1 |
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Foreign Banks |
29.1 |
7.8 |
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Private Sector Banks |
19.9 |
8.0 |
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Scheduled Commercial Banks* |
22.4 |
19.8 |
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Credit |
|
Public Sector Banks |
22.5 |
20.4 |
|
Foreign Banks |
28.5 |
4.0 |
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Private Sector Banks |
19.9 |
10.9 |
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Scheduled Commercial Banks* |
22.3 |
17.3 |
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*
Including RRBs. |
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36.
Commercial banks’ investment in SLR securities, adjusted for LAF,
declined marginally from 28.4 per cent of NDTL in March 2008 to 26.7
per cent in March 2009.
37.
According to the data at a disaggregated level drawn from 49
banks accounting for 95.0 per cent of total bank credit, the
year-on-year growth in bank credit to industry as of February 2009 was
broadly similar to that in the previous year. While credit flow to
agriculture and real estate was significantly higher, it was lower for
housing. As a result, industry’s share in total credit flow increased
significantly in 2008-09
(Table 12). |
|
Table 12: Annual Sectoral Flow of
Credit |
|
Sector |
As on February 15, 2008 |
As on February 27, 2009 |
|
|
(y-o-y) |
(y-o-y) |
|
|
Amount |
% share |
Variations |
Amount |
% share |
Variations |
|
|
(Rs. crore) |
in total |
(per cent) |
(Rs. crore) |
in total |
(per cent) |
|
Agriculture |
34,013 |
9.2 |
16.4 |
52,742 |
13.0 |
21.5 |
|
Industry |
1,67,819 |
45.2 |
25.9 |
2,13,261 |
52.5 |
25.8 |
|
Real Estate |
11,361 |
3.1 |
26.7 |
34,533 |
8.5 |
61.4 |
|
Housing |
26,930 |
7.3 |
12.0 |
19,012 |
4.7 |
7.5 |
|
NBFCs |
20,979 |
5.7 |
48.6 |
26,651 |
6.6 |
41.7 |
|
Overall Credit |
3,71,053 |
100.0 |
22.0 |
4,06,304 |
100 |
19.5 |
|
Notes: 1. Credit growth for February 2008 is calculated with
outstanding as on February 15, 2008 |
|
to obtain variation over comparable 26-week data. |
|
2. Data are provisional. |
|
|
38. Significant variations have also been observed in the flow
of credit to different sectors by the three broad bank groups during
2008-09. Credit growth by public sector banks to industry accelerated
in 2008-09. However, credit growth to personal loans and services
decelerated. Credit by all the three bank groups to real estate
accelerated significantly, while that to small enterprises decelerated
(Table 13). |
|
Table 13: Sectoral Deployment of
Credit: Bank Group-wise |
|
Variation (y-o-y) (%) |
|
Item |
Public Sector
Banks |
Private Sector
Banks* |
Foreign Banks* |
|
|
As on |
As on |
As on |
As on |
As on |
As on |
|
|
February |
February |
February |
February |
February |
February |
|
|
15, 2008 |
27, 2009 |
15, 2008 |
27, 2009 |
15, 2008 |
27, 2009 |
|
|
Non-food Gross Bank Credit (1 to 4) |
22.3 |
23.9 |
19.0 |
9.1 |
28.8 |
1.6 |
|
1 |
Agriculture and Allied Activities |
19.3 |
19.2 |
-1.3 |
39.0 |
NA |
NA |
|
2 |
Industry |
23.2 |
31.0 |
35.2 |
7.4 |
35.0 |
6.5 |
|
3 |
Personal Loans |
15.6 |
11.6 |
8.5 |
7.4 |
14.5 |
-8.1 |
|
|
of which: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Housing |
13.2 |
10.0 |
13.5 |
4.9 |
-2.1 |
-4.4 |
|
4 |
Services |
28.6 |
24.4 |
28.5 |
4.5 |
41.2 |
6.9 |
|
|
of which: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real Estate Loans |
47.9 |
79.1 |
6.9 |
13.9 |
-36.0 |
40.5 |
|
|
Non-Banking Financial Companies |
53.0 |
44.8 |
14.0 |
38.1 |
64.0 |
20.8 |
|
|
Memo Item |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Small Enterprises** |
49.0 |
36.7 |
209.5 |
23.2 |
190.4 |
59.5 |
|
* |
The share of some private sector banks and foreign banks in total
bank credit to
agriculture and small scale enterprises is small. |
|
** |
Includes small manufacturing and service enterprises. |
|
NA: Not Available. |
|
|
Total Flow of Resources to the Commercial Sector
39.
The flow of resources from non-bank sources to the commercial
sector throughout 2008-09 was lower than that in the previous year,
reflecting depressed domestic and international capital market
conditions. However, till mid-January 2009, higher bank credit growth
compensated for the decline in resources from non-banks. Beginning
from the fortnight ended January 16, 2009, non-food bank credit growth
turned lower than the previous year. Reflecting moderation in both
bank credit and funds from other sources, the total flow of resources
to the commercial sector from banks and other sources during 2008-09
was significantly lower than that in the previous year
(Table 14). |
|
Table 14: Flow of Financial
Resources to the Commercial Sector |
|
(Rs. crore) |
|
Item |
2007-08 |
2008-09 |
|
From Banks |
4,44,807 |
4,14,902 |
|
From Other Sources* |
3,35,698 |
2,64,138 |
|
Total Resources |
7,80,505 |
6,79,040 |
|
* Includes borrowings from financial institutions and
NBFCs as well as resources mobilised |
|
from the capital market and by way of ECBs, FCCBs, ADRs/GDRs,
FDI and short-term |
|
credit as per the latest available data, adjusted for
double counting. |
|
|
Note: Data in this table also include gross
investments by LIC in corporate debt and infrastructure and social
sector, which were not included in the corresponding table presented
in Third Quarter Review, January 2009. |
|
Interest Rates
40.
Since mid-September 2008, the Reserve Bank has cut the repo rate
by 400 basis points and the reverse repo rate by 250 basis points. The
CRR was also reduced by 400 basis points of NDTL of banks
(Table 15). |
|
Table 15: Monetary Easing by the
Reserve Bank since mid-September 2008 |
|
(Per cent) |
|
Instrument |
As at |
Extent of Reduction |
|
Mid-September 2008 |
Early March 2009 |
(basis points) |
|
Repo Rate |
9.00 |
5.00 |
400 |
|
Reverse Repo |
6.00 |
3.50 |
250 |
|
Cash Reserve Ratio @ |
9.00 |
5.00 |
400 |
|
@
Percentage of NDTL. |
|
|
41. Taking cues from the reduction in the Reserve Bank’s policy
rates and easy liquidity conditions, all public sector banks, most
private sector banks and some foreign banks have reduced their deposit
and lending rates. The reduction in the range of term deposit rates
between October 2008 - April 18, 2009 has been 125-250 basis points by
public sector banks, 75-200 basis points by private sector banks and
100-200 basis points by five major foreign banks. The reduction in the
range of BPLRs was 125-225 basis points by public sector banks,
followed by 100-125 basis points by private sector banks and 100 basis
points by five major foreign banks
(Table 16). |
|
Table 16: Reduction in Deposit and
Lending Rates |
|
(October 2008 - April 2009*) |
|
(Basis points) |
|
Bank Group |
Deposit Rates |
Lending Rates (BPLR) |
|
Public Sector Banks |
125-250 |
125-225 |
|
Private Sector Banks |
75-200 |
100-125 |
|
Five Major Foreign Banks |
100-200 |
0-100 |
|
*
As on April 18, 2009. |
|
|
42.
The reduction in deposit rates was more pronounced in respect of
deposits of up to three year maturity. The range of BPLRs of public
sector banks, private sector and five major foreign banks declined
between October 2008 and April 18, 2009
(Table 17). |
|
Table 17: Movements in Deposit and
Lending Rates |
|
(Per cent) |
|
Interest Rates |
October |
March |
April* |
Variation** |
|
|
2008 |
2009 |
2009 |
(basis points) |
|
Term Deposit Rates |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Public Sector Banks |
|
|
|
|
|
a) |
Up to 1 year |
2.75-10.25 |
2.75-8.25 |
2.75-8.00 |
0-225 |
|
b) |
1
year up to 3 years |
9.50-10.75 |
8.00-9.25 |
7.00-8.75 |
200-250 |
|
c) |
Over 3 years |
8.50-9.75 |
7.50-9.00 |
7.25-8.50 |
125-125 |
|
|
Private Sector Banks |
|
|
|
|
|
a) |
Up to 1 year |
3.00-10.50 |
3.00-8.75 |
3.00-8.50 |
0-200 |
|
b) |
1
year up to 3 years |
9.00-11.00 |
7.50-10.25 |
7.50-9.50 |
150-150 |
|
c) |
Over 3 years |
8.25-11.00 |
7.50-9.75 |
7.50-9.25 |
75-175 |
|
|
Five Major Foreign Banks |
|
|
|
|
|
a) |
Up to 1 year |
3.50-9.50 |
2.50-8.00 |
2.50-8.00 |
100-150 |
|
b) |
1
year up to 3 years |
3.60-10.00 |
2.50-8.00 |
2.50-8.00 |
110-200 |
|
c) |
Over 3 years |
3.60-10.00 |
2.50-8.00 |
2.50-8.00 |
110-200 |
|
|
BPLR |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Public Sector Banks |
13.75-14.75 |
11.50-14.00 |
11.50-13.50 |
125-225 |
|
|
Private Sector Banks |
13.75-17.75 |
12.75-16.75 |
12.50-16.75 |
100-125 |
|
|
Five Major Foreign Banks |
14.25-16.75 |
14.25-15.75 |
14.25-15.75 |
0-100 |
|
*
As on April 18, 2009. |
|
** Variation of April 18, 2009 over October 2008. |
|
|
43.
The reduction in BPLRs by most public sector banks was in the
range of 125-200 basis points, followed by 50-150 basis points
reduction by most private sector banks and 50 basis points reduction
by foreign banks
(Table 18). |
|
Table 18: Reduction in BPLR by SCBs
– Frequency Distribution |
|
(April 18, 2009 over October 2008) |
|
(Number of banks) |
|
Bank Group |
25 |
50 |
75 |
100 |
125 |
150 |
175 |
200 |
225 |
250 |
Total |
|
|
bps |
bps |
bps |
bps |
bps |
bps |
bps |
bps |
bps |
bps |
|
|
Public Sector Banks |
– |
– |
1 |
– |
8 |
8 |
2 |
7 |
– |
1 |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(27) |
|
Private Sector Banks |
1 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
– |
– |
1 |
– |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(22) |
|
Foreign Banks |
– |
4 |
1 |
1 |
– |
– |
– |
2 |
– |
– |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(28) |
|
Note: Figures in parentheses indicate total
number of banks operating in India. |
|
|
44.
The efficacy of the monetary transmission mechanism hinges on the
extent and the speed with which changes in the central bank’s policy
rate are transmitted through the term-structure of interest rates
across markets. While the response to policy changes by the Reserve
Bank has been faster in the money and government securities markets,
there has been concern that the large and quick changes effected in
the policy rates by the Reserve Bank have not fully transmitted to
banks’ lending rates. During the second half of 2008-09, while the
Reserve Bank has reduced its lending rate (repo rate) by 400 basis
points, most banks have lowered their lending rate in the range of
50-150 basis points.
45. The adjustment in market interest rates in response to changes
in policy rates gets reflected with some lag. However, the
transmission to the credit market is somewhat slow on account of
several structural rigidities. In this context, banks have brought
out the following constraints in their discussions with the Reserve
Bank. First, the administered interest rate structure of small savings
acts as a floor to deposit interest rates. Without reduction in
deposit rates, banks find it difficult to reduce lending rates
exclusively on policy cues. Second, while banks are allowed to offer
‘variable’ interest rates on longer-term deposits, depositors have a
distinct preference for fixed interest rates on such deposits which
results in an asymmetric contractual relationship. In a rising
interest rate scenario, while depositors retain the flexibility to
prematurely withdraw their existing deposits and re-deploy the same at
higher interest rates, banks have to necessarily carry these high cost
deposits till their maturity in the downturn of the interest rate
cycle. Third, during periods of credit boom as in 2004-07, competition
among banks for wholesale deposits often hardens deposit interest
rates, thereby further increasing the cost of funds. Fourth, the
linkage of concessional administered lending rates, such as for
agriculture and exports, to banks’ BPLRs makes overall lending rates
less flexible. Fifth, the persistence of large volumes of market
borrowing by the government hardens interest rate expectations. From
the real economy perspective, however, for monetary policy to have
demand-inducing effects, lending rates will have to come down.
46. The changes in BPLR do not fully reflect the changes in the
effective lending rates. During the pre-policy consultations with the
Reserve Bank, banks pointed out that lending rates should not be
assessed only in terms of reduction in BPLRs since as much as
three-quarters of lending is at rates below BPLR which includes
lending to agriculture, export sector, and well-rated companies,
including PSUs. The weighted average lending rate, which was 11.9 per
cent in 2006-07, increased to 12.3 per cent (provisional) in 2007-08.
According to the information collected from select banks, the average
yield on advances, a proxy measure of effective lending rate, in
2008-09 was around 10.9 per cent. As most of the commercial banks
have cut their BPLRs in the second half of 2008-09, the effective
lending rate towards the end of 2008-09 could be even lower than 10.9
per cent. Nevertheless, it may be noted that current deposit and
lending rates are now higher than in 2004-2007, although the policy
rates are now lower than in that period. This is reflective of the
hysteresis in the system. Reduction in public sector banks deposit
rates in 1-3 year maturity from 9.50-10.75 per cent in October 2008 to
7.00-8.75 per cent by April 2009 has not been commensurate with the
moderation in inflation. Judging from the experience of 2004-07,
deposit rates can be lower and should come down.
47. Notwithstanding the above factors, there is still a scope for
banks to reduce their lending rates. Pointing to the current WPI
inflation rate near zero, some have argued that real lending rates are
very high. The point-to-point variations in WPI exaggerate the level
of real interest rate due to divergence between various price indices
as also the inflation expectations. Notwithstanding computational
challenges, even when inflation is taken as 4.0-4.5 per cent based on
the underlying trend, real lending rates would still appear to be
high. Banks, therefore, must strive to reduce their lending rates
further.
Financial Markets
48.
Since October 2008, interest rates have declined across the term
structure in the money and government securities markets
(Table 19).
The call/notice rates have remained near or below the lower bound of
the LAF corridor from November 2008. While the secondary market yield
on the 10-year government security touched an intra-year low of 5.11
per cent on December 30, 2008, it then generally increased in the wake
of the large market borrowing programme of the Government, reaching
7.08 per cent on March 30, 2009. The yield has subsequently declined
on account of substantial easing of liquidity and reduction in
inflation. |
|
Table 19: Interest Rates - Monthly
Average |
|
(Per cent) |
|
Segment/Instrument |
March |
October |
January |
March |
April 17, |
|
|
2008 |
2008 |
2009 |
2009 |
2009 |
|
Call Money |
7.37 |
9.90 |
4.18 |
4.17 |
3.47 |
|
CBLO |
6.37 |
7.73 |
3.77 |
3.60 |
2.60 |
|
Market Repo |
6.72 |
8.40 |
4.27 |
3.90 |
2.86 |
|
Commercial Paper |
10.38 |
14.17 |
9.48 |
9.79 |
7.00 |
|
Certificates of Deposit |
10.00 |
10.00 |
7.33 |
6.73# |
4.00 |
|
91-day Treasury Bills |
7.33 |
7.44 |
4.69 |
4.77 |
4.09 |
|
10-year Government Security |
7.69 |
7.80 |
5.82 |
6.57 |
6.41 |
|
# Pertains to mid-March 2009. |
|
|
49.
During 2008-09, the rupee, with significant intra-year variation,
generally depreciated against major currencies except pound sterling
on account of widening of trade and current account deficits as well
as capital outflows. During the current fiscal year (up to April 17,
2009), the rupee has generally remained steady
(Chart 2). |
|
|
|
50.
During 2008-09, equity markets weakened in tandem with global
stock markets, reflecting general deterioration in sentiment, FII
outflows, slowdown in industrial growth and lower corporate profits.
The BSE Sensex declined to 8160 on March 9, 2009 from a peak of 20873
recorded on January 8, 2008; it closed higher at 11023 on April 17,
2009.
External Sector
51. India’s current account deficit (CAD) widened during 2008-09
(April-December) in comparison with the corresponding period of the
previous year. As net capital inflows declined sharply, the overall
balance of payments (BoP) position turned negative resulting in
drawdown of reserves
(Table 20). |
|
Table 20: India’s Balance of
Payments |
|
(US $ billion) |
|
Item |
April-December |
|
|
Aug-07 |
Sep-08 |
|
Exports |
113.6 |
133.5 |
|
Imports |
182.9 |
238.9 |
|
Trade Balance |
-69.3 |
-105.3 |
|
Invisibles, net |
53.8 |
68.9 |
|
Current Account Balance |
-15.5 |
-36.5 |
|
Capital Account* |
82.7 |
16.1 |
|
Change in Reserves# |
-67.2 |
20.4 |
|
*
Including errors and omissions. |
|
|
|
# On a BoP basis (i.e., excluding
valuation): (-) indicates increase; (+) indicates decrease. |
|
|
52.
The overall approach to the management of India’s foreign exchange
reserves takes into account the changing composition of the balance of
payments and endeavours to reflect the ‘liquidity risks’ associated
with different types of flows and other requirements. As capital
inflows during 2007-08 were far in excess of the normal absorptive
capacity of the economy, there was substantial accretion to foreign
exchange reserves by US$ 110.5 billion. As capital inflows reduced
sharply, the foreign exchange reserves declined by US$ 53.7 billion
from US$ 309.7 billion as at end-March 2008 to US$ 256.0 billion by
end-December 2008, including valuation losses. Excluding valuation
effects, the decline was US$ 20.4 billion during April-December 2008.
India’s foreign exchange reserves were US$ 252.0 billion as at
end-March 2009 which increased to US$ 253.0 billion by April 10, 2009.
II. Stance of Monetary Policy
53.
The policy responses in India since September 2008 have been
designed largely to mitigate the adverse impact of the global
financial crisis on the Indian economy. The conduct of monetary
policy had to contend with the high speed and magnitude of the
external shock and its spill-over effects through the real, financial
and confidence channels. The evolving stance of policy has been
increasingly conditioned by the need to preserve financial stability
while arresting the moderation in the growth momentum.
54. The thrust of the various policy initiatives by the Reserve
Bank has been on providing ample rupee liquidity, ensuring comfortable
dollar liquidity and maintaining a market environment conducive for
the continued flow of credit to productive sectors. The key policy
initiatives taken by the Reserve Bank since September 2008 are set out
below:
Policy Rates
• The policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF)
was reduced by 400 basis points from 9.0 per cent to 5.0 per cent.
• The policy reverse repo rate under the LAF was reduced by 250
basis points from 6.0 per cent to 3.5
per cent.
Rupee Liquidity
• The cash reserve ratio (CRR) was reduced by 400 basis points
from 9.0 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) of banks
to 5.0 per cent.
• The statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) was reduced from 25.0 per
cent of NDTL to 24.0 per cent.
• The export credit refinance limit for commercial banks was
enhanced to 50.0 per cent from 15.0 per cent of outstanding export
credit.
• A special 14-day term repo facility was instituted for
commercial banks up to 1.5 per cent of NDTL.
• A special refinance facility was instituted for scheduled
commercial banks (excluding RRBs) up to 1.0 per cent of each bank’s
NDTL as on October 24, 2008.
• Special refinance facilities were instituted for financial
institutions (SIDBI, NHB and Exim Bank).
Forex Liquidity
• The Reserve Bank sold foreign exchange (US dollars) and made
available a forex swap facility to banks.
• The interest rate ceilings on non-resident Indian (NRI)
deposits were raised.
• The all-in-cost ceiling for the external commercial borrowings
(ECBs) was raised. The all-in-cost ceiling for ECBs through the
approval route has been dispensed with up to June 30, 2009.
• The systemically important non-deposit taking non-banking
financial companies (NBFCs-ND-SI) were permitted to raise short-term
foreign currency borrowings.
Regulatory Forbearance
• The risk-weights and provisioning requirements were relaxed and
restructuring of stressed assets was initiated.
55.
A detailed listing of various policy measures undertaken by the
Reserve Bank since September 2008 is set out in
Annex I. |
|
Liquidity Impact
56.
The actions of the Reserve Bank since mid-September 2008 have
resulted in augmentation of actual/potential liquidity of over
Rs.4,22,000 crore. In addition, the permanent reduction in the SLR by
1.0 per cent of NDTL has made available liquid funds of the order of
Rs.40,000 crore for the purpose of credit expansion
(Table 21). |
|
Table 21: Actual/Potential Release
of Primary Liquidity – since Mid-September 2008 |
|
Measure/Facility |
Amount |
|
|
|
(Rs. crore) |
|
1 |
CRR Reduction |
1,60,000 |
|
2 |
Unwinding/Buyback/De-sequestering of MSS Securities |
97,781 |
|
3 |
Term Repo Facility |
60,000 |
|
4 |
Increase in Export Credit Refinance |
25,512 |
|
5 |
Special Refinance Facility for SCBs (Non-RRBs) |
38,500 |
|
6 |
Refinance Facility for SIDBI/NHB/EXIM Bank |
16,000 |
|
7 |
Liquidity Facility for NBFCs through SPV |
25,000* |
|
Total (1 to 7) |
4,22,793 |
|
Memo: Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR)
Reduction |
40,000 |
|
* Includes an option of Rs.5,000 crore. |
|
|
57.
The liquidity situation has improved significantly following the
measures taken by the Reserve Bank. The overnight money market rates,
which generally hovered above the repo rate during September-October
2008, have softened considerably and have generally been close to or
near the lower bound of the LAF corridor since early November 2008.
Other money market rates such as discount rates of CDs, CPs and CBLO
softened in tandem with the overnight money market rates. The LAF
window has been in a net absorption mode since mid-November 2008. The
liquidity problem faced by mutual funds has eased considerably. Most
commercial banks have reduced their benchmark prime lending rates.
The total utilisation under the recent refinance/liquidity facilities
introduced by the Reserve Bank has been low as the overall liquidity
conditions remain comfortable
(Table 22).
However, their availability has provided comfort to the banks/FIs,
which can fall back on them in case of need. |
|
Table 22: Utilisation of Various
Liquidity Facilities Available from the Reserve Bank
– As on April 16, 2009 |
|
Refinance Facility
|
Availability of
Facility:
Terminal Dates |
Limit |
Outstanding |
Outstanding
as per cent
of Limit |
|
i) |
Export Credit Refinance Facility |
Standing Facility |
36,446 |
590 |
1.6 |
|
ii) |
Special Refinance Facility for |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Scheduled Commercial Banks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(excluding RRBs) |
30.09.2009 |
38,429 |
1,380 |
3.6 |
|
iii) |
Special Term Repo Facility |
|
|
|
|
|
|
to Banks (for funding to MFs,
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NBFCs and HFCs) |
30.09.2009 |
60,000 |
90 |
0.2 |
|
iv) |
Refinance Facility to SIDBI |
31.03.2010 |
7,000 |
5,819 |
83.1 |
|
v) |
Refinance Facility to NHB |
31.03.2010 |
4,000 |
3,220 |
80.5 |
|
vi) |
Refinance Facility to |
|
|
|
|
|
|
EXIM Bank |
31.03.2010 |
5,000 |
2,800 |
56 |
|
vii) |
Liquidity Facility for NBFCs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
through SPV Route |
30.06.2009 |
25,000* |
750 |
3 |
|
Total (i to vii)
|
1,75,875 |
14,649 |
8.3 |
|
|
Memo Item:
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forex Swap Facility to Banks |
31.03.2010 |
For tenor up
to three months |
1,030 |
– |
|
* The total support from the Reserve Bank
is limited to Rs.20,000 crore with an option to raise it by
a further Rs.5,000 crore. |
|
|
58.
The Reserve Bank has multiple instruments at its command such as
repo and reverse repo rates, cash reserve ratio (CRR), statutory
liquidity ratio (SLR), open market operations, including the market
stabilisation scheme (MSS) and the LAF, special market operations, and
sector-specific liquidity facilities. In addition, the Reserve Bank
also uses prudential tools to modulate flow of credit to certain
sectors consistent with financial stability. The availability of
multiple instruments and flexible use of these instruments in the
implementation of monetary policy has enabled the Reserve Bank to
modulate the liquidity and interest rate conditions amidst uncertain
global macroeconomic conditions.
Growth Projection
59. The India Meteorological Department in its forecast of
South-West monsoon expects a normal rainfall at 96 per cent of its
long period average for the current year. The fiscal and monetary
stimulus measures initiated during 2008-09 coupled with lower
commodity prices could cushion the downturn in the growth momentum
during 2009-10 by stabilising domestic economic activity to some
extent. However, any upturn in the growth momentum is unlikely in view
of the projected contraction in global demand during 2009,
particularly decline in trade. While domestic financing conditions
have improved, external financing conditions are expected to remain
tight. Private investment demand is, therefore, expected to remain
subdued. On balance, with the assumption of normal monsoon, for policy
purpose, real GDP growth for 2009-10 is placed at around 6.0 per cent.
|
|
Inflation Projection
60. On account of slump in global demand, pressures on global
commodity prices have abated markedly around the world. The
sharp decline in prices of crude oil, metals, foodgrains, cotton and
cement has influenced inflation expectations in most parts of the
world. This is also reflected in the domestic WPI inflation reaching
close to zero. Prices of manufactured products have decelerated
sharply, while that of the fuel group have contracted, though
inflation on account of food articles still remains high. Keeping in
view the global trend in commodity prices and domestic demand-supply
balance, WPI inflation is projected at around 4.0 per cent by
end-March 2010.
61. The WPI inflation, however, is expected to be in the negative
territory in the early part of 2009-10. However, this should not be
interpreted as deflation for policy purposes. This expected negative
inflation in India has only statistical significance and is not a
reflection of demand contraction as is the case in advanced economies.
This transitory WPI inflation in negative zone may not persist beyond
the middle of 2009-10. The consumer price inflation as reflected in
various indices is expected to moderate from its present high level
but would continue to remain in positive territory through 2009-10
unlike WPI inflation. Moreover, it may also be noted that the sharp
decline in WPI inflation has not been commensurately matched by a
similar decline in inflation expectations.
62. It would be the endeavour of the Reserve Bank to ensure price
stability and anchor inflation expectations. Towards this objective,
the Reserve Bank will, as always, continue to take into account the
behaviour of all the price indices and their components. The conduct
of monetary policy would continue to condition and contain perception
of inflation in the range of 4.0-4.5 per cent so that an inflation
rate of around 3.0 per cent becomes the medium-term objective,
consistent with India’s broader integration into the global economy
and with the goal of maintaining self-accelerating growth over the
medium-term.
Monetary Projection
63. Monetary and credit aggregates have witnessed deceleration
since their peak levels in October 2008. The
liquidity overhang emanating from the earlier surge in capital inflows
has substantially moderated in 2008-09. The Reserve Bank is committed
to providing ample liquidity for all productive activities on a
continuous basis. As the upside risks to inflation have declined,
monetary policy has been responding to slackening economic growth in
the context of significant global stress. Accordingly, for policy
purposes, money supply (M3) growth for 2009-10 is placed at 17.0 per
cent. Consistent with this, aggregate deposits of scheduled commercial
banks are projected to grow by 18.0 per cent. The growth in adjusted
non-food credit, including investment in bonds/debentures/shares of
public sector undertakings and private corporate sector and CPs, is
placed at 20.0 per cent. Given the wide dispersion in credit growth
noticed across bank groups during 2008-09, banks with strong deposit
base should endeavour to expand credit beyond 20.0 per cent. As
always, these numbers are provided as indicative projections and not
as targets.
Overall Assessment
64.
The global financial and economic outlook continues to be
unsettled and uncertain. The latest assessment by major international
agencies projecting sharp contraction in global trade volumes in 2009
has exacerbated the uncertainty. The current assessments project
little chance of global economic recovery in 2009. Despite large
scale recapitalisation, write-offs and asset substitutions, sizeable
chunks of assets of systemically important banks and financial
institutions remain impaired. It is also not clear if the
deleveraging process is complete. In such a scenario, external
financing conditions for emerging market economies may continue to
remain tight and constrain their growth prospects. |
|
65.
Governments and central banks all over the world have responded to
the ongoing global financial crisis by initiating several large,
aggressive and unconventional measures. There is, however, a
contentious debate on whether these measures are adequate and
appropriate and when, if at all, they will start showing the desired
results. There is a separate debate on whether the measures taken so
far, responding as they are to short-term compulsions, are eroding
long-term sustainability. Many difficult issues will need to be
addressed going forward. There is unprecedented co-ordinated policy
action on monetary, fiscal, regulatory and institutional reforms to
address the ongoing financial and economic crisis and strengthen the
international financial architecture. In this context, the initiatives
by the leaders of the G-20 announced in April 2009 to: (i) restore
confidence, growth, and jobs; (ii) repair the financial system to
restore lending; (iii) strengthen financial regulation to rebuild
trust; (iv) fund and reform the international financial institutions
to overcome the crisis and prevent future ones; (v) promote global
trade and investment and reject protectionism to underpin prosperity;
and (vi) build an inclusive, green and sustainable recovery, should
help overcome the uncertainty surrounding the financial and economic
outlook.
66. Here in India, there are several immediate challenges facing
the economy which would need to be addressed going forward. First,
after five years of high growth, the Indian economy was headed for a
moderation in the first half of 2008-09. However, the growth slowdown
accentuated in the third quarter of 2008-09 on account of spillover
effects of international developments. While the moderation in growth
seems to have continued through the fourth quarter of 2008-09, it has
been cushioned by quick and aggressive policy responses both by the
Reserve Bank and the Government. Notwithstanding the contraction of
global demand, growth prospects in India continue to remain favourable
compared to most other countries. While public investment can play a
critical role in the short-term during a downturn, private investment
has to increase as the recovery process sets in. A major
macroeconomic challenge at this juncture is to support the drivers of
aggregate demand to enable the economy to return to its high growth
path.
67. The second challenge going forward is meeting the credit needs
of the non-food sector. Although, for the year 2008-09 as a whole,
credit by the banking sector expanded, the pace of credit flow
decelerated rapidly from its peak in October 2008. This deceleration
has occurred alongside a significant decline in the flow of resources
from non-bank domestic and external sources. The deceleration in
total resource flow partly reflects slowdown in demand, drawdown of
inventories by the corporates and decline in commodity prices. The
expansion in credit, however, has been uneven across sectors. There
is, therefore, an urgent need to boost the flow of credit to all
productive sectors of the economy, particularly to MSMEs, to aid the
process of economic recovery. The Reserve Bank continues to maintain
and will maintain ample liquidity in the system. It should be the
endeavour of commercial banks to ensure that every creditworthy
borrower is financed at a reasonable cost while, at the same time,
ensuring that credit quality is maintained.
68.
It may be noted that bank credit had accelerated during 2004-07.
This, combined with significant slowdown of the economy in 2008-09,
may result in some increase in NPAs. While it is not unusual for NPAs
to increase during periods of high credit growth and downturn in the
economy, the challenge is to maintain asset quality through early
actions. This calls for a focused approach, due diligence and balanced
judgment by banks. |
|
69.
Third, the Reserve Bank was able to manage the large borrowing
programme of the Central and State Governments in 2008-09 in an
orderly manner. The market borrowings of the Central and State
Governments are expected to be higher in 2009-10. Thus, a major
challenge is to manage the large government borrowing programme in
2009-10 in a non-disruptive manner. Large borrowings also militate
against the low interest rate environment that the Reserve Bank is
trying to maintain to spur investment demand in keeping with the
stance of monetary policy. The Reserve Bank, therefore, would continue
to use a combination of monetary and debt management tools to manage
government borrowing programme to ensure successful completion of
government borrowings in a smooth manner. The Reserve Bank has already
announced an OMO calendar to support government market borrowing
programme through secondary market purchase of government securities.
During the first half of 2009-10, planned OMO purchases and MSS
unwinding will add primary liquidity of about Rs.1,20,000 crore which,
by way of monetary impact, is equivalent to CRR reduction of 3.0
percentage points. This should leave adequate resources with banks to
expand credit.
70. Fourth, another challenge facing the Indian economy is to
restore the fiscal consolidation process. The fiscal stimulus
packages by the Government and some other measures have led to sharp
increase in the revenue and fiscal deficits which, in the face of
slowing private investment, have cushioned the pace of economic
activity. However, it would be a challenge to unwind fiscal stimulus
in an orderly manner and return to a path of credible fiscal
consolidation. In this context, close monitoring of the performance of
the economy and the proper sequencing of the unwinding process would
have to be ensured.
71. Fifth, a continued challenge is to preserve our financial
stability. The Reserve Bank would continue to maintain conditions
which are conducive for financial stability in the face of global
crisis. A sound banking sector, well-functioning financial markets
and robust payment and settlement infrastructure are the
pre-requisites for financial stability. The banking sector in India
is sound, adequately capitalised and well-regulated. By all counts,
Indian financial and economic conditions are much better than in many
other countries of the world. The single factor stress tests carried
out as part of the report of the Committee on Financial Sector
Assessment (CFSA) (Chairman: Dr. Rakesh Mohan and Co-Chairman: Shri
Ashok Chawla) have revealed that the banking system in India can
withstand significant shocks arising from large potential changes in
credit quality, interest rate and liquidity conditions. These stress
tests for credit, market and liquidity risk show that Indian banks are
generally resilient.
72. Sixth, the Reserve Bank has injected large liquidity in the
system since mid-September 2008. It has reduced the CRR significantly
and instituted some sector-specific facilities to improve the flow of
credit to certain sectors. The tenure of some of these facilities has
been extended to provide comfort to the market. While the Reserve
Bank will continue to support all the productive requirements of the
economy, it will have to ensure that as economic growth gathers
momentum, the large liquidity injected in the system is withdrawn in
an orderly manner. It is worth noting that even as the monetary
easing by the Reserve Bank has potentially made available a large
amount of liquidity to the system, at the aggregate level this has not
been out of line with our monetary aggregates unlike in many advanced
countries. As such, the challenge of unwinding will be less daunting
for India than for other countries. |
|
73.
Finally, we will have to address the key challenge of ensuring an
interest rate environment that supports revival of investment demand.
Since October 2008, as the inflation rate has decelerated and the
policy rates have been reduced, market interest rates have also come
down. However, the reduction in interest rates across the term
structure and across markets has not been uniform. Given the cost
plus pricing structure, banks have been slow in reducing their lending
rates citing high cost of deposits. In this context, it may be noted
that the current deposit and lending rates are higher than in 2004-07,
although the policy rates are now lower. Reduction in deposit rates
affects the cost only at the margin since existing term deposits
continue at the originally contracted cost. So lending rates take
longer to adjust. Judging from the experience of 2004-07, there is
room for downward adjustment of deposit rates. With WPI inflation
falling to near zero, possibly likely to get into a negative
territory, albeit for a short period, and CPI inflation
expected to moderate, inflationary risks have clearly abated. The
Reserve Bank’s current assessment is that WPI inflation could be
around 4.0 per cent by end-March 2010. Banks have indicated that small
savings rate acts as a floor to banks’ deposit interest rate. It may,
however, be noted that small savings and bank deposits are not perfect
substitutes. Banks should not, therefore, be overly apprehensive about
reducing deposit interest rates for fear of competition from small
savings, especially as the overall systemic liquidity remains highly
comfortable. There is scope for the overall interest rate structure to
move down within the policy rate easing already effected by the
Reserve Bank. Further action on policy rates is now being taken to
reinforce this process.
Policy Stance
74. On the basis of the above overall assessment, the stance of
monetary policy in 2009-10 will broadly be as follows:
• Ensure a policy regime that will enable credit expansion at
viable rates while preserving credit quality so as to support the
return of the economy to a high growth path.
• Continuously monitor the global and domestic conditions and
respond swiftly and effectively through policy adjustments as
warranted so as to minimise the impact of adverse developments and
reinforce the impact of positive developments.
• Maintain a monetary and interest rate regime supportive of
price stability and financial stability taking into account the
emerging lessons of the global financial crisis.
75. Over the last several months, the Reserve Bank has been actively
engaged in policy action to minimise the impact of the global crisis
on India. The policy response of the Reserve Bank has helped in
keeping our financial markets functioning in a normal manner and in
arresting the growth moderation. The Reserve Bank will continue to
maintain vigil, monitor domestic and global developments, and take
swift and effective action to minimise the impact of the crisis and
restore the economy to a high growth path consistent with price and
financial stability. |
II. Monetary Measures
|
|
Bank Rate
76. The Bank Rate has been retained unchanged at 6.0 per cent.
Repo Rate
77. It is proposed:
• to reduce the repo rate under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility
(LAF) by 25 basis points from 5.0 per cent to 4.75 per cent with
immediate effect. |
|
Reverse Repo Rate
78. It is proposed:
• to reduce the reverse repo rate under the LAF by 25 basis
points from 3.5 per cent to 3.25 per cent with immediate effect.
79. The Reserve Bank has the flexibility to conduct repo/reverse repo
auctions at a fixed rate or at variable rates as circumstances
warrant.
80. The Reserve Bank retains the option to conduct overnight or
longer term repo/reverse repo under the LAF depending on market
conditions and other relevant factors. The Reserve Bank will continue
to use this flexibly including the right to accept or reject tender(s)
under the LAF, wholly or partially, if deemed fit, so as to make
efficient use of the LAF in daily liquidity management.
Cash Reserve Ratio
81. The cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks has been retained
unchanged at 5.0 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL).
First Quarter Review
82. The First Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2009-10 will be
undertaken on July 28, 2009. |
|
Part B. Developmental and Regulatory Policies 2009-10
83.
The key objective of financial sector policies is to aid the
process of economic growth consistent with price and financial
stability. In this context, the Reserve Bank has been focusing on
improving credit delivery, developing financial markets and promoting
financial inclusion. Internationally, the financial intermediation
process has got significantly affected by the ongoing financial
crisis. Consequently, various international bodies and financial
intermediaries have been contemplating changes in the financial
regulatory architecture to restore normalcy in the functioning of
global financial markets and strengthen financial stability. There is
a great deal of thinking going on about the appropriate design of the
regulatory framework that encourages credit flow while mitigating
risks. Domestically, although there has been some slowdown in credit
growth, particularly in the second half of 2008-09, the banking system
remains inherently sound and the financial markets including
inter-bank markets are functioning normally. Nevertheless, the
unfolding of the global financial crisis underscores the need for
further strengthening of regulation and supervision even as India
remains outside the epicentre of the global crisis. |
|
Box: International Co-operation - Recent
Initiatives
-
Several international initiatives have been taken in the recent
period for formulating proposals for strengthening the financial
system. The major initiatives in this regard include the following:
-
Several reports have been released recently such as the Financial
Stability Forum’s (now Financial Stability Board) Report on
‘Enhancing Market and Institutional Resilience’, the Geneva Report
on ‘The Fundamental Principles of Financial Regulation’, Larosiere
Report on ‘The High Level Group on Financial Supervision in the EU’
and the Turner Review on ‘Regulatory Response to the Global Banking
Crisis’.
-
The
G-20 countries have also taken several initiatives. In the summit
held in Washington in November 2008, the G-20 countries laid down an
action plan and constituted four Working Groups, viz., (i)
Enhancing Sound Regulation and Strengthening Transparency; (ii)
Reinforcing International Co-operation and Promoting Integrity in
Financial Markets; (iii) Reform of the IMF; and (iv) The World Bank
and other Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs). The first group on
Enhancing Sound Regulation and Strengthening Transparency was
co-chaired by Dr. Rakesh Mohan, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of
India along with Mr. Tiff Macklem of Canada. The status for India
with regard to the recommendations of this group in set out in
Annex II.
-
The
leaders of the G-20 again met in London on April 2, 2009 and laid
down the ‘Global Plan for Recovery and Reform’.
-
Drawing mainly from the recommendations of the group on Enhancing
Sound Regulation and Strengthening Transparency, the G-20 also made
a declaration for strengthening the financial system. The
declaration agreed to make far reaching reforms in the areas of
expanding the membership of international bodies, international
co-operation, prudential regulations, scope of regulations,
compensation, tax havens and non-co-operative jurisdictions,
accounting standards and credit rating agencies.
-
With a view to increasing international co-operation, the Financial
Stability Forum (FSF), rechristened as Financial Stability Board (FSB),
has been expanded to include more emerging market economies and its
mandate has been broadened. India has been invited to join the FSB
as a member. Alongside the current mandate of the FSF – to assess
vulnerabilities affecting the financial system and identify and
oversee action needed to address them – the FSB will advise on
market developments and monitor best practices in meeting regulatory
standards, among others.
-
The
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has also been expanded
and India has been invited to nominate a member to the Committee.
Accordingly, Smt. Usha Thorat, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of
India has been nominated as a member of the BCBS.
|
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*
A Group of 30 (G-30) released the report on ‘Financial Reform – A
Framework for Financial Stability’ on January 15, 2009 to strengthen
prudential regulations and supervision. |
I. Financial Stability
|
|
84. The current crisis has triggered several initiatives in an
unprecedented co-ordinated manner at the global level with a view to
resolving the crisis and strengthening the international financial
architecture
(Box).
85. While India has been a part of the global initiative,
recently a comprehensive assessment of the Indian financial sector has
been conducted by the Committee on Financial Sector Assessment (CFSA)
(Chairman: Dr. Rakesh Mohan and Co-Chairman: Shri Ashok Chawla)
constituted by the Government of India, in consultation with the
Reserve Bank. The Committee submitted its report to the Finance
Minister on March 25, 2009 at New Delhi. The Report was also released
to the public on March 30, 2009 and placed on the Reserve Bank’s
website. While the Committee found India’s financial sector to be
broadly sound and resilient, it also identified specific concerns. The
Committee has made several recommendations towards furthering
financial sector development over the medium term.
86. Keeping in view both international and domestic initiatives
in the financial sector, it is proposed: |
-
to
constitute a Task Force to look into all the issues that have arisen
with regard to the G-20 Working Groups and the report of the CFSA
and suggest follow-up actions relevant for the Reserve Bank in the
domestic context on an on-going basis, for every quarter;
-
in
consultation with all regulators and the Government to consider the
setting up of a Working Group to implement the recommendations of
the CFSA;
-
to
set up a Financial Stability Unit in the Reserve Bank drawing upon
inter-disciplinary expertise from supervisory, regulatory,
statistics, economics and financial markets departments for carrying
out periodic stress testing and for preparing financial stability
reports.
|
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(a) BPLR System: Review
87. Consequent to the Mid-Term Review of
October 2005, the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) issued guidelines
for determination of benchmark prime lending rate (BPLR) by banks for
appropriate pricing of credit. Over time, however, the system of BPLR
has evolved in such a manner that it has lost its relevance as a
meaningful reference rate as bulk of loans is advanced below BPLR.
Furthermore, this impedes the smooth transmission of monetary signals
and makes the loan pricing system non-transparent. It has, therefore,
become necessary to review the current procedures and processes of
pricing of credit. Accordingly, it is proposed:
• to constitute a Working Group to review the present BPLR system
and suggest changes to make credit pricing more transparent. The
Working Group would consult all the stakeholders and submit its report
by end-August 2009.
(b) Payment of Interest on Savings Bank Account on a
Daily Product Basis
88. At present, interest on savings bank accounts is calculated on
the minimum balances held in the accounts during the period from the
10th day to the last day of each calendar month. Several banks have
suggested that interest on savings bank accounts may be calculated
either on the minimum balances in the deposit accounts during the
period from the first to the last day of each calendar month or on a
daily product basis. The matter was referred to the IBA, which was of
the view that payment of interest on a daily product basis would be
feasible only when computerisation in banks is completed. In view of
the present satisfactory level of computerisation in commercial bank
branches, it is proposed that:
Modalities in this regard will be worked
out in consultation with banks. |
|
III. Financial Markets
Money Market
(a) Special Refinance Facility:
Extension |
|
89. A special refinance facility was introduced on November 1, 2008
under Section 17(3B) of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 to provide
funding to scheduled commercial banks (excluding regional rural banks)
up to 1.0 per cent of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) as
on October 24, 2008 at the repo rate. It is proposed:
• to extend this special refinance facility up to March 31, 2010.
(b) Special Term Repo Facility: Extension
90. The Reserve Bank introduced a special 14-day term repo facility
for banks in September 2008 through relaxation in the maintenance of
SLR up to 1.5 per cent of their NDTL, to enable them to meet the
liquidity requirements of mutual funds (MFs), non-banking financial
companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs). The auctions
for the special 14-day term repo are conducted on a daily basis. On a
review, it is proposed:
• to extend the time for availability of this special term repo
facility to banks up to March 31, 2010;
• to conduct these 14-day term repo auctions on a weekly basis.
(c) Export Credit Refinance: Review
91. With a view to providing flexibility in the liquidity management
of banks, the limit of the standing liquidity facility to banks in
terms of export credit refinance (ECR) under Section 17(3A) of the RBI
Act was raised from 15.0 per cent of the eligible outstanding rupee
export credit as on the preceding fortnight to 50.0 per cent in
November 2008. It is proposed:
• to review the ECR limit in March 2010.
(d) Money Market Mutual Funds
92. The liquidity stress recently faced by mutual funds,
particularly the money market mutual funds (MMMFs), was caused
primarily on account of mobilisation of significant resources from
large corporates and banks with redemption facilities on par with
current accounts of banks. In this regard, the Securities and
Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has taken several measures to mitigate
the liquidity risks. In view of the systemic implications of the
activities of such funds, it is proposed:
• to identify and address the macro-prudential concerns arising
from the current framework in consultation with SEBI.
(e) Interest Rate Futures
93. The Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) for Money, Foreign
Exchange and Government Securities Markets had released the report of
the Working Group on Interest Rate Futures (Chairman: Shri V. K.
Sharma) in August 2008. The Working Group had recommended, inter
alia, the introduction of a physically settled contract based on
a 10-year notional coupon bearing government bond. The Reserve Bank
has already permitted banks to take trading positions in interest rate
futures (IRFs). The RBI-SEBI Standing Technical Committee has
completed the preparatory work and an exchange traded IRFs contract on
the 10-year notional coupon bearing government bond is expected to be
launched shortly.
Government Securities Market
(a) Central Government Securities |
|
(i)
Floating Rate Bonds
94. The floating rate bonds (FRBs) issued by the Government of India
till September 2004 were linked to the cut-off yields of the 364-day
Treasury Bills (TBs), which led to certain issues relating to the
pricing of FRBs in the secondary market. Reflecting this experience
and in consultation with market participants and the Technical
Advisory Committee on Money, Foreign Exchange and Government
Securities Markets, the structure has been revised. The revised
structure contemplates that: (i) the auction will be conducted through
the ‘price based’ process as against the ‘spread based’ process
earlier; and (ii) the base yield for FRBs will be linked to the
primary market cut-off yield of the 182-day TBs. The revised structure
is expected to simplify the methodology for pricing of FRBs in the
secondary market. The revised issuance structure for FRBs has been
built into the negotiated dealing system (NDS) auction format being
developed by the Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL).
95. The indicative calendar for the issuance of Central Government
securities provides for the issuance of FRBs. Accordingly:
• any new issuance of floating rate bonds would be in terms of the
revised issuance structure.
(ii) Auction Process of Government of India Securities
96. As indicated in the Mid-Term Review of October 2008, the
recommendations of the Internal Working Group (Chairman: H.R. Khan)
involving the Reserve Bank such as reduction of the time gap between
bid submission and declaration of auction results have already been
implemented. The other recommendations of the Working Group such as: (i)
withdrawal of the facility of bidding in physical form and submission
of competitive bids only through the NDS; and (ii) submission of a
single consolidated bid on behalf of all its constituents by the
bank/primary dealer (PD) in respect of non-competitive bids will be
implemented after the amendments in the specific notification and in
the scheme for non-competitive bidding facility by the Government of
India. (iii) Ways and Means Advances to the Government of India:
Status
97. The Reserve Bank, in consultation with the Government of India,
has revised the extant limits for the Ways and Means Advances (WMA)
for the financial year 2009-10. As per the revised arrangements, the
WMA limits will continue to be fixed on a half-yearly basis, and are
placed at Rs.20,000 crore for the first half and Rs.10,000 crore for
the second half of 2009-10. The applicable interest rate on WMAs and
overdrafts will, as it is the practice now, continue to be linked to
the repo rate. The Reserve Bank of India, however, retains the
flexibility to revise the limits in consultation with the Government
of India, taking into consideration the prevailing circumstances.
(b) Debt Management for State Governments
(i) Non-Competitive Bidding in the Auction of State Development
Loans (SDLs): Status
98. In order to widen the investor base and enhance the liquidity
for SDLs, a scheme for non-competitive bidding in the auction of SDLs
was notified by all the State Governments on July 20, 2007.
Subsequent to the announcement in the Mid-Term Review of October 2008,
the necessary system changes required to handle non-competitive
bidding in the auction of SDLs have been carried out in the NDS
auction platform developed by the CCIL.
99. The scheme for non-competitive bidding in SDLs will be
operationalised during the current financial year.
(ii) Ways and Means Advances Limits for the State Governments:
Status |
|
100. The State-wise limits of normal WMA for the year 2009-10 have
been kept unchanged at the limits set for the year 2008-09.
Accordingly, the aggregate normal WMA limit for State Governments is
placed at Rs.9,925 crore, including the WMA limit of Rs.50 crore for
the Government of the Union Territory of Puducherry. All other terms
and conditions of the scheme remain unchanged.
(c) Development of Market Infrastructure
(i) Separate Trading for Registered Interest and Principal of
Securities (STRIPS)
101. Stripping is the process of converting periodic coupon payments
and the principal of an existing Government security into tradable
zero-coupon securities, i.e., separate trading for registered
interest and principal of securities (STRIPS). The availability of
STRIPS across the term structure will aid the development of a
sovereign zero-coupon yield curve. As indicated in the Annual Policy
Statement of April 2008, all operational arrangements for the
introduction of STRIPS are ready. The required software development,
critical for the introduction of STRIPS, has been carried out as part
of the public debt office – NDS (PDO-NDS) platform maintained by the
Reserve Bank. Furthermore, in order to ensure sufficient
volume/liquidity in STRIPS and considering the fungibility of coupon
STRIPS, securities have been identified that will be eligible for
stripping/reconstitution by the market participants. Accordingly:
• draft guidelines prepared in consultation with the market
participants are being placed on the Reserve Bank’s website for
comments and feedback by end-May 2009. With the finalisation of the
guidelines, STRIPS will be launched during the current financial year.
(ii) Revision of Repo Accounting
102. The accounting norms on repo transactions prescribed by the
Reserve Bank in 2003, treated repo as a set of two independent
outright transactions. Consequent upon the amendment in 2006 to the
Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934, repo has been defined as an
instrument for borrowing funds by selling securities. Accordingly, it
was proposed to revise the accounting guidelines to capture the
economic essence of repo as a collateralised lending and borrowing
instrument and not as outright sale and purchase. Accordingly, it is
proposed:
• to issue revised guidelines on repo accounting, taking into
account comments on the draft guidelines earlier placed on the Reserve
Bank’s website, by end-June 2009 for implementation from April 1,
2010.
(iii) Multi-modal Settlements in Government Securities: Status
103. As indicated in the Annual Policy Statement of April 2008, a
new settlement mechanism (Multi-modal Settlement) through commercial
banks has been put in place to facilitate entities such as mutual
funds (MFs), which do not hold a current account with the Reserve
Bank, to directly participate in the government securities market.
Under the new mechanism, while settlement of the securities leg
continues to take place in the SGL account maintained with the Reserve
Bank, the funds leg will settle through the ‘designated settlement
banks’ (DSBs) appointed by the CCIL. The guidelines in the matter were
issued on June 2, 2008. From June 30, 2008 onwards, secondary market
transactions in government securities undertaken by MFs are being
settled only through this mechanism.
104. The facility of multi-modal settlements can also be availed of
by other non-bank entities such as insurance companies, pension funds
and co-operative banks which do not maintain a current account with
the Reserve Bank. |
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(iv) Clearing and Settlement of OTC Rupee Interest Rate Derivatives:
Status
105. As indicated in the Mid-Term Review of October 2008, the CCIL
has operationalised a clearing and settlement arrangement for
over-the-counter (OTC) rupee interest rate derivatives on a
non-guaranteed basis since November 27, 2008. As at end-March 2009,
13 members have decided to participate in the non-guaranteed
settlement of OTC rupee interest rate derivatives. The trade
reporting platform for OTC rupee interest rate derivatives is already
functional.
(v) Settlement of OTC Trades in Corporate Bonds
106. For facilitating settlement of OTC corporate bond transactions
in real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system on a DvP-I basis (i.e.,
on a trade-by-trade basis), it has been decided, in consultation with
the SEBI, to allow the clearing houses of the exchanges to have a
transitory pooling account facility with the Reserve Bank. Under the
proposed settlement mechanism, the buyer of securities will transfer
the funds through his bank to this transitory account through RTGS.
The clearing house will thereafter transfer the securities from the
seller’s account to the buyer’s account and effect the release of
funds from the transitory account to the seller’s account.
Foreign Exchange Market
(a) ECBs: Extension of Relaxation of all-in-cost
Ceilings
107. As per extant ECB policy, the all-in-cost ceilings for ECBs are:
LIBOR plus 300 bps for ECBs with average maturity period of three
years and up to five years; and LIBOR plus 500 bps for ECBs with
average maturity of more than five years. However, these all-in-cost
ceilings have been dispensed with up to June 30, 2009 subject to the
condition that ECB proposals above the prescribed all-in-cost
ceilings, irrespective of the amount of the borrowing, will come under
the approval route. Considering the continuing tightness of credit
spreads in the international markets, it is proposed:
• to extend the relaxation in all-in-cost ceilings until December
31, 2009.
(b) Liberalisation of the Policy on Buyback of FCCBs
108. Recognising the benefits accruing to the Indian companies as
well as to the economy, the policy on the premature buyback of FCCBs
was liberalised in December 2008. The proposals for buyback of FCCBs
by Indian companies are being considered both under the approval and
automatic routes, provided buyback is financed out of their foreign
currency resources held in India or abroad and/or out of fresh ECBs
raised in conformity with the current ECB norms and out of internal
accruals up to US $ 50 million of the redemption value per company.
The entire procedure for buyback of FCCBs is required to be completed
by December 31, 2009 and details of the buyback are also required to
be reported to the Reserve Bank.
109. In terms of the extant norms, the Reserve Bank has been
considering, under the approval route, proposals from Indian companies
for buyback of FCCBs, out of internal accruals, up to US $ 50 million
redemption value per company, at a minimum discount of 25 per cent on
the book value. Up to April 15, 2009, the Reserve Bank has approved 18
proposals for buyback of FCCBs involving US $ 765 million with the
discount ranging from 25 per cent to 50 per cent.
110. The current policy has been reviewed. Keeping in view the
benefits accruing to Indian companies, it is proposed to increase the
total amount of permissible buyback, out of internal accruals, from
US$ 50 million of the redemption value per company to US $ 100
million, by linking the higher amount of buyback to larger discounts.
Accordingly: |
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• Indian companies may, henceforth, be permitted, under the
approval route, to buy back FCCBs out of internal accruals with a
minimum discount of 25 per cent of book value for redemption amount of
up to US $ 50 million, 35 per cent of book value for redemption amount
more than US $ 50 million and up to 75 million; and 50 per cent of
book value for redemption amount more than US $ 75 million and up to
US $ 100 million. |
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(c) Loans against Non-resident Deposits
111. As per the extant norms, Authorised Dealer Category–I and
authorised banks are permitted to grant loans up to Rs.20 lakh against
the security of funds held in NR(E)RA and FCNR(B) deposits. On a
review, it is proposed:
• to enhance the cap of Rs.20 lakh to Rs.1 crore with immediate
effect.
(d) Currency Futures
112. Since the launch of the first currency futures exchange in
September 2008, currency futures contracts are being traded in three
recognised exchanges. The average daily volume of currency futures
contracts traded on all the exchanges increased from Rs.260 crore in
September 2008 to Rs.2,181 crore in December 2008 and further to
Rs.5,235 crore in March 2009. The functioning of the exchanges
continues to be reviewed by the RBI-SEBI Standing Technical
Committee. On the recommendation of the Committee, the position limits
on the clients and trading members have been doubled from US $ 5
million and US $ 25 million respectively to US $ 10 million and US $
50 million. However, the upper limits of 6 per cent and 15 per cent of
the total open interest on the clients and trading members remain
unchanged. The position limit for banks continues at 15 per cent of
total open interest or US $ 100 million, whichever is higher. |
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IV. Credit Delivery Mechanism and Other
Banking Services
(a) Credit Flow to the MSE Sector
113. As indicated in the Mid-Term Review of October 2008, the Reserve
Bank appointed a Working Group on Rehabilitation of Sick SMEs
(Chairman: Dr. K.C. Chakrabarty). The Working Group made several
significant recommendations pertaining not only to the issue of
rehabilitation of sick SMEs but also to the larger issues of credit
flow to the SME sector and other developmental issues. While the
recommendations on which action is to be initiated by the Government
of India, State Governments and SIDBI are being forwarded to them, it
is proposed:
• to issue guidelines to banks based on the recommendations of
the Group, by April 30, 2009.
114. Having regard to the need to accelerate the credit flow to the
micro and small enterprises (MSEs) sector so critical for employment,
output and exports, it is proposed:
• to ask the Standing Advisory Committee on MSEs to review the
Credit Guarantee Scheme so as to make it more effective.
(b) Rural Co-operative Banks
(i) Licensing of Co-operatives
115. The Committee on Financial Sector Assessment (Chairman: Dr.
Rakesh Mohan and Co-Chairman: Shri Ashok Chawla) has observed that
there is a need to draw up a roadmap for ensuring that only licensed
banks operate in the co-operative space. The Committee further
suggested the need for a roadmap to ensure that banks which fail to
obtain a licence by 2012 should not be allowed to operate. This will
expedite the process of consolidation and weeding out of non-viable
entities from the co-operative space. Accordingly, it is proposed:
• to work out a roadmap for achieving this objective in a
non-disruptive manner in consultation with NABARD.
(ii) Revival of Rural Co-operative Credit Structure: Status
116. As indicated in the Annual Policy Statement of April 2008, the
Government of India approved a package for revival of the short term
rural co-operative credit structure based on the recommendations of
the Task Force on Revival of Rural Co-operative Credit Institutions
(Chairman: Prof. A. Vaidyanathan). So far, 25 States have executed
Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with the Government of India and the
NABARD, as envisaged in the package. Eight States have made necessary
amendments in their Co-operative Societies Acts. An aggregate amount
of Rs. 4,740 crore has been released by the NABARD as the Government
of India’s share for recapitalisation of primary agricultural credit
societies (PACS) in eight States as on February 28, 2009. Eight State
Governments have released their shares of Rs.459 crore for
recapitalisation of PACS. The National Implementing and Monitoring
Committee (NIMC), set up by the Government of India, is guiding and
monitoring the implementation of the revival package on an all-India
basis.
(c) Regional Rural Banks
(i) Capital to Risk-weighted Assets Ratio for RRBs
117. The Committee on Financial Sector Assessment (Chairman: Dr.
Rakesh Mohan and Co-Chairman: Shri Ashok Chawla) has suggested a
phased introduction of capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) in
the case of RRBs, along with the recapitalisation of RRBs after
consolidation of these entities. It is, therefore, proposed:
• to introduce CRAR for RRBs in a phased manner, taking into
account the status of recapitalisation and amalgamation. A time-table
for this purpose would be announced in consultation with NABARD.
(ii) Assistance to RRBs for Adoption of ICT Solutions for
Financial Inclusion: Status
118. The Report of the Working Group on Defraying Costs of ICT
Solutions for Regional Rural Banks (Chairman: Shri G. Padmanabhan) was
placed on the Reserve Bank’s website in August 2008 for comments from
public. The Group has, inter alia, noted that apart from the
North-Eastern region and Jammu and Kashmir, there are 204 districts in
several States which have been identified by the Committee on
Financial Inclusion (Chairman: Dr. C. Rangarajan) as areas where there
is a high level of financial exclusion. It is, therefore, suggested
that these areas could also be considered for special treatment. With
a view to enabling RRBs to adopt IT based solutions for financial
inclusion, it is proposed:
• to work out, in consultation with NABARD, the manner of providing
assistance to RRBs adopting ICT solutions for financial inclusion in
districts identified as having high level of exclusion by the
Committee on Financial Inclusion.
(iii) Amalgamation of RRBs |
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119. Consequent upon the amalgamation of 156 RRBs into 45 new RRBs
sponsored by 20 banks in 17 States, the total number of RRBs declined
from 196 to 86 as at end-March 2009 (which includes a new RRB set up
in the Union Territory of Puducherry). The amalgamation process is
almost complete.
(iv) Recapitalisation of RRBs
120. The Union Budget 2007-08 announced that RRBs, which have a
negative net worth, would be recapitalised in a phased manner. As on
March 31, 2009, 26 RRBs have been fully recapitalised with an amount
of Rs. 1,783 crore and one RRB has been partially recapitalised with
an amount of Rs.13 crore. The process of recapitalisation has been
completed except in respect of one RRB in the State of Uttar Pradesh.
(v) Scheduling of Amalgamated RRBs
121. Out of 45 amalgamated RRBs, 25 RRBs have been included in the
Second Schedule to the RBI Act, 1934 while 76 erstwhile RRBs have been
excluded from the Second Schedule in terms of the notification dated
September 22, 2008 published in the Gazette of India dated November
15, 2008.
(vi) Branch Licensing: Further Liberalisation
122. The Mid-Term Review of October 2008 proposed to allow RRBs
greater flexibility in opening new branches as long as they made
profits and their financials improved. The RRBs have obtained 345
licenses for opening branches in the financial year 2008-09 and have
opened 316 branches in the same period.
(vii) Technology Upgradation of RRBs
123. As indicated in the Mid-Term Review of October 2008, the
recommendation of the Working Group (Chairman: Shri G. Srinivasan) to
prepare a roadmap for migration to core banking solutions (CBS) by
RRBs, was forwarded to all sponsor banks in October 2008 for
implementation. The Report has, among others, set September 2011 as
the target date for all RRBs to move towards CBS. Also, all RRB
branches opened after September 2009 are required to be CBS compliant
from day one. In March 2009, sponsor banks were advised to give their
feedback/status on implementation of the recommendations of the report
in respect of RRBs sponsored by them.
(d) Delivery of Credit to Agriculture and other Segments
of the Priority Sector
(i) Kisan Credit Card Scheme
124. The Kisan Credit Card (KCC) scheme, introduced in 1998-99 to
enable farmers to purchase agricultural inputs and draw cash for their
production needs, was revised to provide adequate and timely finance
for meeting the comprehensive credit requirements of farmers under a
single window, with flexible and simplified procedure, adopting a
whole farm approach. During 2008-09 (up to December 2008), public
sector banks (PSBs) issued 3.9 million KCCs with sanctioned limits
aggregating Rs.23,366 crore. Since the inception of the scheme, PSBs
have issued 35.08 million KCCs with sanctioned limits aggregating
Rs.1,77,607 crore.
(ii) Rural Infrastructure Development Fund
125. The Interim Budget 2009-10 announced the
continuation of financing of rural infrastructure projects for 2009-10
by way of RIDF XV which would be set up with NABARD with a corpus of
Rs.14,000 crore, and a separate window under RIDF XV for rural roads
component of Bharat Nirman Programme with a corpus of Rs.4,000 crore. |
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126. Consequent upon the announcement made in the Union Budget
2008-09, several funds were set up such as: (i) Short-Term
Co-operative Rural Credit (STCRC) (Refinance) Fund with the NABARD
with a corpus of Rs.5,000 crore; (ii) MSME (Refinance) Fund and MSME
(Risk Capital) Fund with the Small Industries Development Bank of
India (SIDBI) with corpus of Rs.1,600 crore and Rs.1,000 crore; and
(iii) Rural Housing Fund with the National Housing Bank (NHB) with
corpus of Rs.1,000 crore. The Annual Policy Statement of April 2008
announced that the shortfall in achievement of 10 per cent sub-target
for lending to weaker sections by domestic scheduled commercial banks
will also be taken into account for the purpose of allocating amounts
for contribution to the Rural Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF)
maintained with the NABARD or funds with other financial institutions,
as specified by the Reserve Bank, with effect from April 2009.
127. Consequent upon the announcement of measures by the Reserve
Bank on November 15, 2008 to sustain the growth momentum in the
employment-intensive sectors of micro and small enterprises and
housing, the corpus of MSME (Refinance) Fund and Rural Housing Fund
was enhanced by Rs.2,000 crore (to Rs.3,600 crore) and by Rs.1,000
crore (to Rs.2,000 crore) respectively. As on March 31, 2009 various
scheduled commercial banks have placed deposits of Rs.4,622 crore in
STCRC (Refinance) Fund, Rs.3,326 crore in MSME (Refinance) Fund,
Rs.250 crore in MSME (Risk Capital) Fund and Rs.1,760 crore in
Rural Housing Fund.
(e) Interest Subvention Relief to Farmers
128. The Union Budget 2008-09 announced continuation of the
interest subvention scheme for short-term crop loans, introduced in
2006-07. The rate of subvention was increased from 2 per cent to 3 per
cent for 2008-09. The Interim Budget 2009-10 announced that the
Government of India would also continue to provide interest subvention
in 2009-10 to ensure that farmers get short-term crop loans up to Rs.3
lakh at 7.0 per cent per annum.
(f) Micro-finance
129. The self-help group (SHG)-bank linkage programme has emerged
as the major micro-finance programme in the country and is being
implemented by commercial banks, RRBs and co-operative banks. As on
March 31, 2008 3.6 million SHGs had outstanding bank loans of
Rs.17,000 crore, an increase of 25 per cent over March 31, 2007 in
respect of number of SHGs credit linked. During 2007-08, banks
financed 1.2 million SHGs for Rs.8,849 crore. As at end-March 2008,
SHGs had 5 million savings accounts with banks for Rs.3,785 crore.
(g) Financial Inclusion
(i) Pilot Project of State Level Bankers’ Committee (SLBCs) for
100 per cent Financial Inclusion
130. So far, 344 districts have been identified by SLBCs for 100
per cent financial inclusion. Of these, 175 districts in 21 States and
7 Union Territories have reported having achieved the target. All
districts of Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Uttarakhand,
Goa, Chandigarh, Puducherry, Daman & Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and
Lakshadweep have reported having achieved the target of 100 per cent
financial inclusion.
131. As indicated in the Mid-Term Review of October 2008, the
findings of the external agencies entrusted with conducting evaluation
studies in achieving the target of 100 per cent financial inclusion in
26 districts were placed on the Reserve Bank’s website for wider
dissemination. Based on the findings, banks were advised in January
2009, among other things, to (i) ensure provision of banking services
nearer to the location of the no-frills account holders through a
variety of channels; (ii) provide General Credit Card (GCC)/small
overdrafts along with no-frills accounts to encourage the account
holders to actively operate the accounts; (iii) conduct awareness
drives so that the no-frills account holders were made aware of the
facilities offered; (iv) review the extent of coverage in districts
declared as 100 per cent financially included; and (v) efficiently
leverage on the technology enabled financial inclusion solutions
currently available. |
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(ii) Special Task Force in North-Eastern Region
132. As indicated in the Mid-Term Review of October 2008, a
scheme of providing financial support to banks by the Reserve Bank for
setting up banking facilities (currency chests, extension of foreign
exchange and Government business facilities) at centres, in the
North-Eastern region (NER), which are not found to be commercially
viable by banks, was formulated, provided the State Governments made
available necessary premises and other infrastructural support. The
Government of Meghalaya has agreed to the proposal of providing
premises and security, and bids have been received by PSBs and RRBs
for setting up branches at centres identified by the State Government
and are being processed. Action is being intitiated in respect of
other States in NER where requests have been received.
(iii) Setting up of Credit Counselling Centres on a Pilot Basis
133. So far, banks have reported setting up or proposing to set
up 123 credit counselling centres in various States of the country.
The feedback received in this regard indicated that most of these
centres were in effect set up as extensions of the bank branches and
engaged in promotion of bank specific products. Accordingly, a model
scheme on financial literacy and credit counselling centres (FLCCs)
was formulated and communicated to all scheduled commercial banks and
RRBs with the advice to set up the centres as distinct entities
maintaining an arm’s length from the bank so that the FLCC’s services
are available to even other banks’ customers in the district.
(iv) Setting up of Rural Self Employment Training Institutes
134. The Reserve Bank has issued guidelines, framed by the
Government of India, to the SLBC convenor banks to set up at least one
Rural Self Employment Training Institute (RSETI) in each district by
2010. These institutions will train at least one youth in a family
below poverty line (BPL) in various fields and enhance capacity
building. In all, 134 RSETIs have been set up as on December 31, 2008.
A target for opening of 100 RSETIs by banks was set for the year
2008-09 and a grant of Rs. one crore per RSETI has been earmarked by
the Planning Commission for setting up the institutes. The Regional
Offices of the Reserve Bank have been advised to monitor the progress
of setting up of RSETIs under their jurisdiction on a quarterly basis.
(h) High Level Committee on Lead Bank Scheme
135. As announced in the Mid-Term Review of the Annual Policy
Statement for the year 2007-08, a High Level Committee (Chairperson:
Smt. Usha Thorat) with members drawn from various financial
institutions, banks and Chief Secretaries of select States was
constituted to review the Lead Bank Scheme. The Committee had several
rounds of discussions with different State Governments, banks and
other stakeholders, including academicians, micro-finance institutions
(MFIs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs). The Committee’s
draft report will be placed on the Reserve Bank’s website by May 15,
2009.
(i) Amendment to Banking Ombudsman Scheme 2006
136. The scope of the Banking Ombudsman Scheme,
2006 was widened to include, inter alia, deficiencies arising
out of internet banking. Under the amended Scheme, customers can lodge
complaints against banks for non-adherence to the provisions of the
fair practices code for lenders or the code of bank’s commitment to
customers issued by the Banking Codes and Standards Board of India (BCSBI). |
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V. Prudential Measures
(a) Further Relaxations in the Branch Authorisation
Policy
137. The current branch authorisation policy requires banks to
have a medium term plan in respect of branch expansion. The request
for opening of off-site ATMs was also required to be a part of such
plans. On a review, it is proposed:
• to allow scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) to set up offsite
ATMs without prior approval subject to reporting.
138. With respect to branch authorisation policy, it is proposed:
• to constitute a Group to review the extant framework of branch
authorisation policy with a view to providing greater flexibility,
enhanced penetration and competitive efficiency consistent with
financial stability.
(b) Presence of Foreign Banks in India: Review
139. In February 2005, the Government of India and the Reserve
Bank released the ‘Roadmap for Presence of Foreign Banks in India’
laying out a two-track and gradualist approach aimed at increasing the
efficiency and stability of the banking sector in India. One track was
the consolidation of the domestic banking system, both in private and
public sectors, and the second track was the gradual enhancement of
the presence of foreign banks in a synchronised manner. The roadmap
was divided into two phases, the first phase spanning the period March
2005 - March 2009, and the second phase beginning April 2009 after a
review of the experience gained in the first phase.
140. In view of the current global financial market turmoil,
there are uncertainties surrounding the financial strength of banks
around the world. Further, the regulatory and supervisory policies at
national and international levels are under review. In view of this,
it is considered advisable, for the time being, to continue with the
current policy and procedures governing the presence of foreign banks
in India. The proposed review will be taken up after due consultation
with the stakeholders once there is greater clarity regarding
stability, recovery of the global financial system, and a shared
understanding on the regulatory and supervisory architecture around
the world.
(c) Mitigating Procyclicality: Use of Floating
Provisions
141. The G-20 Working Group on Enhancing Sound Regulation and
Strengthening Transparency has recommended, as a part of measures to
mitigate procyclicality, that capital buffers above minimum
requirements and loan loss provisions should be built up in good times
in order to enhance the ability of the regulated financial
institutions to withstand large shocks. This would require
modification in the Reserve Bank’s circular of June 22, 2006. The
Reserve Bank has been encouraging banks to build floating provisions
as a buffer for the possible stress on asset quality later. It is
proposed:
• to issue further detailed guidelines on mitigating
procyclicality later this year after FSB, BCBS and Committee on Global
Financial System (CGFS) finalise their recommendations in this regard.
(d) Credit Rating Agencies
142. In India, all credit rating agencies are registered with the
SEBI. The Reserve Bank has accorded accreditation to four SEBI
registered credit rating agencies for the limited purpose of using
their ratings for assigning risk weights within the framework of the
Basel II Accord. Since the Indian banking system has migrated to the
Basel II framework, there is a need to review the performance of the
credit rating agencies for continuation of the accreditation,
especially by looking at the latest data relating to cumulative
default rate and transition matrix of the rating agencies.
Accordingly:
• the Reserve Bank will liaise with SEBI on the issue of
rating agencies’ adherence to Code of Conduct Fundamentals of the
International Organisation Securities Commissions (IOSCO). |
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(e) Liquidity Risk
143. In terms of the asset liability management, liquidity of
banks in India is tracked through traditional maturity or cash flow
mismatches. The Reserve Bank has examined the issue of banks
establishing a more robust liquidity risk management framework that is
well integrated into the bank-wide risk management process by adopting
global liquidity planning. In this context, banks will be required to
integrate their various foreign currency assets and liabilities
positions from their branch operations in India with the rupee asset
liability position. Accordingly, it is proposed:
• to prepare a draft circular detailing the modalities for
adopting the integrated liquidity risk management system as also the
guidance note on ‘Liquidity Risk Management’ based on Basel
Committee’s ‘Principles for Sound Liquidity Risk Management and
Supervision’ brought out in September 2008 as well as other
international best practices which would be placed on the Reserve
Bank’s website by June 15, 2009.
(f) Financial Inclusion: Relaxing Eligibility Criteria
for Banking Correspondents
144. With the objective of achieving greater financial inclusion
and increasing the outreach of the banking sector, banks were
permitted, to use the services of NGOs/MFIs set up as societies,
trusts, Section 25 companies, post offices, co-operative societies and
more recently retired bank employees, ex-servicemen and retired
government employees as banking correspondents (BCs). Scaling up the
BC model is a challenge. It is, therefore, proposed:
• to constitute a Working Group to examine the experience to date
of the business correspondent (BC) model and suggest measures, to
enlarge the category of persons that can act as BCs, keeping in view
the regulatory and supervisory framework and consumer protection
issues.
• to increase the maximum distance criterion for the operation of
the BC for rural, semi-urban and urban areas from the existing 15 kms.
to 30 kms.
(g) Risk Weights for Exposure to Central Counterparties
145. A central counterparty (CCP) is an entity that interposes itself
between counterparties to contracts traded within one or more
financial markets, becoming the legal counterparty such that it is the
buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer. The CCIL has
been acting as a CCP for banks in various segments of the financial
market. Similarly, contracts like interest rate futures and currency
futures, which are traded on the stock exchanges, are also settled
through the clearing houses attached to these exchanges.
146.
Banks settling trades through CCIL/stock exchanges have two types of
exposures to these CCPs. First, on account of the on-balance sheet
and off-balance sheet transactions undertaken through the CCP; and
second, the exposure on account of deposits/collateral kept with the
CCPs to meet the margin requirements. It has been decided to lay down
the norms for capital adequacy treatment of such exposures.
Accordingly: |
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• the exposures on account of derivatives/securities financing
transactions trades outstanding against all the CCPs, will be assigned
zero exposure value, as it is presumed that the CCPs’ exposures to
their counterparties are fully collateralised on a daily basis,
thereby providing protection for the central counterparty’s credit
risk exposures;
• the margin amounts/collaterals maintained with the CCPs will
attract risk weights appropriate to the nature of the CCP. For CCIL,
the risk weight will be 20 per cent and for other CCPs, it will be
according to the ratings assigned to these entities as per the New
Capital Adequacy Framework.
• the above prescription will be subject to review on an
on-going basis by the Reserve Bank about the adequacy of margin,
quality of collateral and risk management systems of the clearing
house/CCP. |
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(h) Private Pool of Capital
147. It has been observed that Indian banks have recently been
engaged in sponsoring and managing private pools of capital such as
venture capital funds and infrastructure funds. The G-30 Report on
‘Financial Reform – A Framework for Financial Stability’ released on
January 15, 2009, observed that large, systemically
important banking institutions should be restricted in undertaking
proprietary activities that present particularly high risks and
serious conflicts of interest. Sponsorship and management of
commingled private pools of capital (that is, hedge and private equity
funds in which the banking institutions own capital is commingled with
client funds) should ordinarily be prohibited and large proprietary
trading should be limited by strict capital and liquidity
requirements. Therefore, there is need for banks to have greater
awareness of the risks inherent in such activities and limit such
exposures commensurate with their risk management and available
capital. Keeping in view the reputational risk involved in such
activities, the Reserve Bank had mandated maintenance of certain level
of economic capital in some of the cases approved in the recent past.
It is now proposed:
• to issue a paper on prudential issues in banks’ floating and
managing private pools of capital for eliciting public comments which
will form the basis for finalising regulatory guidelines by September
30, 2009.
(i) Stress Testing
148. In the Mid-Term Review of October 2008, it was indicated
that the Reserve Bank would be upgrading the stress testing
guidelines. Subsequently, the BCBS has issued a paper on ‘Principles
for Sound Stress Testing Practices and Supervision’ in January 2009
for comments. The paper draws lessons for banks and supervisors
emerging from the financial crisis and addresses weaknesses in stress
testing, including the specific areas of risk mitigation and risk
transfer. In this context, the CFSA has recommended that there is a
need for the banks themselves to carry out such periodic stress
testing. It is proposed to upgrade the stress testing guidelines once
BCBS finalises the paper based on comments received.
(j) Securitisation of Bank Loans
149. The securitisation framework in India is considered to be
reasonably prudent and has been able to minimise the incentives that
have led to the problems which surfaced in the current crisis. It has
come to the Reserve Bank’s notice that some banks have securitised
loans immediately after originating or purchasing these from other
banks. Banks are also dividing the total loan for one project into
different tranches and securitising a few tranches even before the
total disbursement is complete, thus passing on the project
implementation risk also to the investors. It is, therefore,
proposed:
• to
prescribe a minimum lock-in-period and minimum retention criteria for
securitising the loans originated and purchased by banks. |
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(k) Certificate of Registration to Credit Information
Companies
150. In response to the Reserve Bank’s press release of April 18,
2007 inviting applications for grant of Certificate of Registration
from companies desirous of entering into the business of credit
information under the Credit Information Companies (Regulation) Act,
2005, 13 applications were received. A High Level Advisory Committee
(Chairman: Dr. R.H. Patil) set up by the Reserve Bank screened the
applications and recommended the names of four applicants for issue of
Certificate of Registration. Accordingly, ‘in principle’ approvals
have been issued to these four applicants. |
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VI. Institutional Developments
Payment and Settlement Systems
(a) Final Guidelines for Prepaid Payment Instruments in
India
151. The enactment of the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007 has
brought the payment systems involved in the issuance of prepaid
payment instruments under the regulatory jurisdiction of the Reserve
Bank. The Reserve Bank had earlier placed the draft guidelines for
issuance/operation of such instruments in public domain for wider
dissemination and feedback. Taking into account the comments received
from various entities within and outside the country, it is now
proposed:
• to permit SCBs which comply with the eligibility criteria to
issue all categories of prepaid payment instruments;
• eligible non-bank entities, including NBFCs, will be permitted
to issue semi-closed instruments, which can be used to purchase all
types of goods and services at an identified network of
establishments.
The operating guidelines in this regard are being issued
separately.
(b) Consolidation of Information Technology Systems:
Data Centres
152. The Reserve Bank has set up data centres which were made
operational in the second half of 2008. The state-of-the-art data
centres provide for a high level of availability of information
technology (IT) systems and ensure optimum business continuity
management. The critical payment and settlement systems of the Reserve
Bank are now operated using the systems at the data centres. Adequate
disaster recovery drills are conducted at periodic intervals. While
all participating member banks have been able to ensure full
participation in these drills by operating from their disaster
recovery (DR) sites, there are a few banks which have not been able to
meet this objective. In view of the critical importance of such drills
and in order to achieve overall systemic efficiency:
• banks are urged to ensure full compliance of these
requirements.
(c) Adequacy of the Fallback Arrangements for Managed IT
Systems
153. Currently, a number of banks have resorted to the retention
of service providers to manage their IT-based operational
requirements. It has, therefore, become imperative that banks have
adequate plans/systems in place so as to manage risks arising out of
such outsourcing arrangements. These risks arise on account of
excessive dependence by the system on a single entity (concentration
risk), inadequate systems (operational risks) as also on account of
failure of these service providers. The Reserve Bank has already
issued comprehensive outsourcing guidelines in November 2006. The risk
management aspects detailed therein are of particular relevance to a
technology service provider. Hence, it is proposed that: |
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• banks should undertake a comprehensive review of all such
outsourced arrangements including on-site inspections of critical
service providers and ensure that adequate fallback arrangements are
put in place. |
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(d) Network Based Operations: RBI Supported Systems"
154. The Reserve Bank has taken steps to make the application
systems [NDS, real time gross settlement (RTGS), centralised funds
management system (CFMS) and structured financial messaging solution (SFMS)]
provided by it to operate in an network based environment using the
Multi Protocol Label Switching (MPLS). The MPLS approach by using a
meshed network topology provides increased redundancies vis-a-vis
a point to point connectivity at cheaper costs without impacting the
security aspects. Accordingly:
• banks are advised to migrate to the MPLS system on a time bound
basis.
(e) Recent Developments
(i) Electronic Payment Systems
155. The coverage of bank branches under the electronic payment
network, viz., the RTGS and the National Electronic Funds
Transfer (NEFT) has increased significantly. While the NEFT network
has increased to 54,200 branches at end-March 2009, the RTGS network
has increased to 55,000 branches. The RTGS handles, on an average,
80,000 transactions per day, with a peak of 1,28,295 transactions
processed as on March 30, 2009.
(ii) National Electronic Clearing Service
156. The volume of transactions through national electronic
clearing service (NECS), introduced in September 2008, is also
increasing. With a view to moving towards the centralised NECS system,
the electronic clearing service (ECS) (credit) in Mumbai has been
merged with the NECS. As such no separate local ECS clearing is
operative in Mumbai.
(iii) National Financial Switch
157. The national financial switch (NFS) membership/volume is
steadily on the increase. As on March 31, 2009 the NFS network covered
a total of 38,714 automated teller machines (ATMs) of 34 banks. On an
average, a daily volume of 8,90,180 transactions (of which 2,56,156
transactions pertained to balance enquiry and 6,34,024 pertained to
cash withdrawal) were routed through the NFS in March 2009 as against
a daily volume of 2,67,598 transactions in March 2008. Furthermore,
on an average, the daily value settled through the NFS was around
Rs.45 crore in March 2009 as against Rs.26 crore in March 2008. Since
April 1, 2009 customers have the facility of using ATM of any bank for
cash withdrawal, free of cost, thereby making ATMs national payment
outlets rather than bank-specific outlets. This measure has seen a
surge in transactions in the NFS network with a peak of 1.1 million
transactions on a single day on April 11, 2009.
(iv) Mobile Payments
158. As indicated in the Mid-Term Review of October 2008, the
operative guidelines for mobile payments were issued on October 8,
2008. So far, 19 banks have obtained permission from the Reserve Bank
to provide mobile payment facilities to their customers.
(v) Rationalisation of Charges for Payment Systems |
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159. The Reserve Bank has rationalised various charges for
payment systems. Accordingly, service charges levied for transfer of
funds under outward RTGS transactions shall not exceed Rs.25 for
transactions of Rs.1 lakh and up to Rs.5 lakh, and Rs.50 for
transactions of Rs.5 lakh and above. Similarly, for outward NEFT
transactions, service charges levied shall not exceed Rs.5 for
transfer of funds up to Rs.1 lakh and Rs.25 for transactions of Rs.1
lakh and above.
160. The Reserve Bank has also prescribed maximum charges which
could be levied for collection of outstation cheques under which the
service charges would not exceed Rs.50 for cheque value up to
Rs.10,000. A maximum charge of Rs.100 would be levied for cheque value
of Rs.10,000 – Rs.100,000. The service charge would not exceed Rs.150
of cheque value Rs.100,001 and above.
(vi) Cheque Truncation System
161. The cheque truncation system (CTS) pilot project was
operationalised in Delhi in February 2008 and more than 90 per cent of
the cheque volume of Delhi clearing house is now processed through the
CTS. The Reserve Bank continues to take steps towards extending the
CTS across the country and accordingly, it has been decided to set up
the CTS in Chennai.
(f) The Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007
162. As indicated in the Mid-Term Review of October 2008, the
process of issuing authorisation to persons to operate various payment
systems has commenced following the notification of the Payment and
Settlement Systems Act, 2007 in August 2008. In terms of the Act, all
payment system providers/operators including credit card issuing
companies and entities engaged in money transfer activity would
require authorisation.
Urban Co-operative Banks
(a) Area of Operations of UCBs
163. In order to facilitate the growth of well-functioning urban
co-operative banks (UCBs) in States, which enter into Memorandum of
Understanding (MoU), it is proposed:
• to permit extension of area of operation of Tier II UCBs in
Grade I to the entire State of registration with the prior approval of
the Reserve Bank.
(b) Review of Regulatory and Supervisory Framework: UCBs
164. UCBs are presently on Basel I capital framework with
surrogate (additional risk-weight) capital charge on market risks. The
Advisory Panel on Financial Regulation and Supervision to the
Committee on Financial Sector Assessment (Chairman: Dr. Rakesh Mohan
and Co-Chairman: Shri Ashok Chawla), which looked into the present
regulatory and supervisory framework for UCBs, has observed that it
would be premature for full migration of UCBs to Basel II at this
juncture. However, it recommended assigning duration based capital
charge for market risk for scheduled UCBs that are systemically
important and comparable in size to medium-sized commercial banks.
Furthermore, the Panelrecommended: (i) a review of the existing
internal control systems, risk management systems, asset liability
management (ALM) and disclosure norms for UCBs; and (ii) the issue of
appropriate guidelines. Accordingly, it is proposed:
• to review the existing instructions and issue appropriate
guidelines to UCBs on internal controls, risk management systems, ALM
and disclosure norms;
• to apply capital charge for market risks in respect of
large-sized and systemically important UCBs with effect from April 1,
2010. |
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(c) Vision Document for UCBs
165. The Vision Document for UCBs envisaged signing of MoU with
the State and Central Governments for harmonisation of dual regulation
and supervision of UCBs and setting up of Task Force on Urban
Co-operative Banks (TAFCUB) for identification of viable UCBs for
their rehabilitation and non-viable UCBs for their non-disruptive
exit. Subsequent to the release of the Vision Document in public
domain in March 2005, the Reserve Bank has entered into MoUs with 25
State Governments (nine entered during April 2008 to March 2009). As
of date, 99 per cent of UCBs and 99 per cent of deposits of the UCB
sector are covered under MoU arrangements. The number of UCBs in Grade
III and IV, signifying various degrees of sickness, has since declined
to 496 as on March 31, 2008 from 725 as on March 31, 2005. Till March
31, 2009 licences had been cancelled or rejected in respect of 85
banks and 31 unlicensed banks in MoU States have been issued banking
licences. Since the recommencement of new branch authorisation, 232
licences have been issued for opening of branches by UCBs in MoU
States. The initiatives for voluntary mergers and amalgamations of
weak UCBs for bringing consolidation in the sector were also carried
forward and new policy guidelines on mergers were announced.
Sixty-eight mergers between healthy and weak banks have been effected
so far. In view of the improved financial condition and enhanced
regulatory and supervisory jurisdiction of the Reserve Bank,
additional business opportunities were opened up for well-functioning
multi-state UCBs and UCBs in MoU States.
(d) Information Technology Support to UCBs
166. Based on the recommendations of the Working Group which looked
into ways of supporting IT initiatives of the UCBs, IDRBT is being
asked to facilitate UCBs availing of Core Banking Platform on an
Application Service Provider (ASP) model. With this, the UCBs will be
able to put in place cost-effective, modern technology so as to render
better customer service and sound regulatory compliance.
Non-Banking Financial Companies
(a) CRAR for NBFCs-ND-SI
167. The Mid-Term Review of October 2008 had indicated that the
CRAR for NBFCs-ND-SI would be raised from 10 per cent to 12 per cent
by March 31, 2009 and further to 15 per cent by March 31, 2010. Taking
into account the difficulty in raising equity capital in the current
economic environment, it has been decided:
• to defer the implementation of CRAR of 12 per cent to March 31,
2010 and of 15 per cent to March 31, 2011.
(b) Time-frame for Realisation of Assets by
Securitisation Companies/Reconstruction Companies
168. In terms of the extant guidelines, securitisation companies
(SCs)/ reconstruction companies (RCs) are required to realise the
financial assets within a specified time-frame, which shall not in any
case exceed five years from the date of acquisition of financial
assets. Requests for extending the time frame in this regard are
being examined. As an interim measure, it is proposed:
• to give an extension of two more years for realisation of the
assets in respect of the security receipts (SRs) issued by SCs/RCs
which have completed five years. |
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(c) Repossession of Vehicles by NBFCs
169. The issue of repossession of vehicles in the event of
non-payment of interest and/or principal of loans given by NBFCs has
recently come into focus, and some courts have also ruled in this
regard. The Reserve Bank has already advised NBFCs to put in place a
Fair Practices Code with the approval of their boards which, inter
alia, covers recovery of loans. The issue has been discussed with
the industry participants and in view of certain queries raised, it is
further clarified that:
• NBFCs must have a built-in re-possession clause in the
contract/loan agreement with the borrower which must be legally
enforceable. To ensure transparency, the terms and conditions of the
contract/loan agreement should contain detailed provisions in this
regard.
A circular to NBFCs to this effect is being issued
separately.
(d) Special Liquidity Facility for Eligible NBFCs-ND-SI
170. The Central Government had announced an arrangement for
providing liquidity support to eligible NBFCs-ND-SI for meeting the
temporary liquidity mismatches through the Industrial Development Bank
of India Stressed Asset Stabilisation Fund (IDBI SASF) Trust, which
has been notified as special purpose vehicle for undertaking this
operation. The facility is meant exclusively for meeting the temporary
liquidity mismatches of the NBFCs and not for asset growth.
171. The facility was available for eligible paper issued by
NBFCs up to March 31, 2009 with an overall ceiling of Rs.20,000 crore,
which was subsequently extended for eligible paper
for a further period of three months till June 30, 2009. The facility
has been availed to the extent of Rs.750 crore till date.
Second Quarter Review
172. The next review of the Annual Statement on Developmental and
Regulatory Policies will be undertaken as part of the second quarter
review of monetary policy on October 27, 2009. |
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April 21, 2009 |
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Policy Measures by the Reserve Bank of
India:
September 2008 Onwards
September 2008
• A firm assurance to meet any demand-supply gaps of foreign
exchange in the domestic foreign exchange market.
• A second LAF was re-introduced on a daily basis.
• Interest rate ceilings on FCNR(B) and NR(E)RA deposits were
increased by 50 basis points each to LIBOR/swap rates minus 25 basis
points and LIBOR/swap rates plus 50 basis points respectively.
• As a temporary measure, scheduled banks were allowed to avail
of additional liquidity support under the LAF to the extent of up to
one per cent of their net demand and time liabilities from their SLR
portfolio and seek waiver of penal interest.
October 2008
• The CRR was reduced by 250 basis points from 9.0 per cent to
6.5 per cent effective from the fortnight beginning October 11, 2008.
• A 14-day special repo facility for a notified amount of
Rs.20,000 crore was instituted to alleviate liquidity stress faced by
mutual funds, and banks were allowed temporary use of SLR securities
for collateral purposes by an additional 0.5 per cent of NDTL
exclusively for this purpose.
• Commercial banks and all-India term lending and refinancing
institutions were allowed to lend against and buy back certificates of
deposit (CDs) held by mutual funds.
• The Reserve Bank temporarily provided a sum of Rs.25,000 crore
as the first instalment under the Agricultural Debt Waiver and Debt
Relief Scheme to scheduled banks and NABARD immediately, pending
Parliamentary sanction and consequent release of funds by the Central
Government.
• Interest rate ceilings on FCNR(B) and NR(E)RA deposits were
increased further by 50 basis points each to LIBOR/swap rates plus 25
basis points and LIBOR/swap rates plus 100 basis points respectively.
• Banks were permitted to borrow funds from their overseas
branches and correspondent banks to the extent of 50 per cent of their
unimpaired Tier-I capital or US $ 10 million, whichever is higher.
• The Reserve Bank announced that it would institute special
market operations to meet the foreign exchange requirements of public
sector oil marketing companies against oil bonds when they become
available.
• On October 20, 2008 the repo rate under the LAF was reduced by
100 basis points to 8.0 per cent.
• The systemically important non-deposit taking non-banking
financial companies (NBFCs-ND-SI) were permitted to raise short-term
foreign currency borrowings.
• External commercial borrowings (ECBs) up to US $ 500
million per borrower per financial year were permitted for rupee
expenditure and/or foreign currency expenditure for permissible
end-uses under the automatic route. Further, the all-in-cost ceiling
for ECBs of average maturity period of three years and up to five
years was raised to 300 basis points, and over five years, to 500
basis points above 6-month LIBOR. |
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November 2008
• The repo rate under the LAF was reduced by 50 basis points to
7.5 per cent with effect from November 3, 2008.
• The CRR was reduced by 100 basis points from 6.5 per cent to
5.5 per cent of NDTL.
• The statutory liquidity ratio (SLR), which was relaxed on a
temporary basis earlier, was made permanent and reduced to 24 per cent
of NDTL effective November 8, 2008.
• In order to provide further liquidity comfort, a special
refinance facility for scheduled commercial banks (excluding RRBs) up
to 1.0 per cent of each bank’s NDTL as on October 24, 2008 was
introduced under Section 17(3B) of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934
up to a maximum period of 90 days.
• On October 15, 2008 the Reserve Bank introduced a 14-day
special repo facility allowing banks to avail additional liquidity
support exclusively for the purpose of meeting the liquidity
requirements of mutual funds to the extent of 0.5 per cent of their
NDTL. Subsequently, this facility was extended for NBFCs and the
relaxation in the maintenance of the SLR was enhanced to the extent of
up to 1.5 per cent of their NDTL.
• Buy-back of MSS dated securities was announced to provide
another avenue for injecting liquidity to be calibrated with the
market borrowing programme of the Government of India.
• The special term repo facility introduced for the purpose of
meeting the liquidity requirements of MFs and NBFCs, was extended till
end-March 2009. Banks can avail of this facility either on an
incremental basis or on a rollover basis within the entitlement of up
to 1.5 per cent of their NDTL.
• Interest rate ceilings on FCNR(B) and NR(E)RA deposits were
further raised by 75 basis points each to LIBOR/swap rates plus 100
basis points and LIBOR/swap rates plus 175 basis points respectively.
• Housing finance companies (HFCs) registered with the National
Housing Bank (NHB) were permitted to raise short-term foreign currency
borrowings under the approval route.
• The Reserve Bank permitted Indian corporates to prematurely buy
back their FCCBs at prevailing discounted rates.
• The period of entitlement of the first slab of pre-shipment
rupee export credit was extended from 180 days to 270 days.
• The aggregate limit of export credit refinance (ECR) facility
for scheduled banks (excluding RRBs) was enhanced from 15 per cent to
50 per cent of the outstanding export credit eligible for refinance.
• SIDBI and the NHB were allocated Rs. 2000 crore and Rs.1000
crore respectively against banks’ estimated shortfall in priority
sector lending in March 2009.
• Banks were encouraged to use the special refinance facility
under Section 17(3B) of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 for the
purpose of lending to micro and small enterprises.
• The provisioning requirements for all types of standard assets
were reduced to a uniform level of 0.40 per cent, except in the case
of direct advances to the agricultural and SME sectors which continue
to attract provisioning of 0.25 per cent, as hitherto.
• Risk weights on banks’ exposures to all unrated claims on
corporates, claims secured by commercial real estate and claims on
NBFCs-ND-SI were reduced to 100 per cent from 150 per cent.
• The special refinance facility under Section 17(3B) of the
Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 introduced on November 1, 2008 was
extended up to June 30, 2009.
• The special term repo facility was expanded to enable banks to
accommodate the funding needs of HFCs. The facility was extended up to
June 30, 2009.
• On November 7, 2008 Indian public and private sector banks that
have foreign branches or subsidiaries were provided a forex swap
facility of tenor up to three months with the Reserve Bank. Further,
for funding the swap, banks were allowed to borrow under the LAF for
the corresponding tenor at the prevailing repo rate. This facility was
subsequently extended up to June 30, 2009.
• The period of entitlement of the first slab of post-shipment
rupee export credit was extended from 90 days to 180 days. |
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December 2008
• The repo rate under the LAF was reduced by 100 basis points
from 7.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent and the reverse repo rate by 100
basis points from 6.0 per cent to 5.0 per cent, effective December 8,
2008.
• A refinance facility was introduced for SIDBI, NHB and EXIM
Bank for Rs. 7,000 crore, Rs.4,000 crore and Rs.5,000 crore
respectively. This facility will be available up to March 31, 2010.
• Authorised Dealers Category-I banks were permitted to consider
applications for premature buy-back of FCCBs from their customers.
• Loans granted by banks to HFCs for on-lending for housing up to
Rs.20 lakh per dwelling unit were classified under priority sector.
• Commercial real estate exposures restructured up to June 30,
2009 were allowed to be treated as standard assets. As a one-time
measure, the second restructuring done by banks of exposures (other
than exposures to commercial real estate, capital market exposures and
personal/consumer loans) up to June 30, 2009 was also made eligible
for concessional regulatory treatment.
• The prescribed interest rate as applicable to post-shipment
rupee export credit (not exceeding BPLR minus 2.5 percentage points)
was extended to overdue bills up to 180 days.
January 2009
• The repo rate under the LAF was reduced by 100 basis points
from 6.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent with effect from January 5, 2009.
• The reverse repo rate under the LAF was reduced by 100 basis
points from 5.0 per cent to 4.0 per cent with effect from January 5,
2009.
• The CRR was reduced from 5.5 per cent to 5.0 per cent of NDTL
effective from the fortnight beginning January 17, 2009.
• In order to address the temporary liquidity constraints of
systemically important non-deposit taking non-banking financial
companies (NBFCs-ND-SI), the Government announced the setting up of a
special purpose vehicle (SPV). According to the scheme announced, the
SPV was allowed to mobilise resources through issuance of government
guaranteed securities for investment in CPs and NCDs of NBFCs-ND-SI.
Government guaranteed securities were required to be purchased by the
Reserve Bank. The SPV was to ensure that the NBFCs used the money
only for addressing liquidity constraints and not for business
expansion. The total support from the Reserve Bank was limited to
Rs.20,000 crore with an option to raise it by a further Rs.5,000 crore.
• The special term repo facility under LAF for the purpose of
meeting the funding requirements of MFs, NBFCs and HFCs was extended
up to September 30, 2009.
• The special refinance facility for scheduled commercial banks
under Section 17 (3B) of the RBI Act, 1934 was extended up to
September 30, 2009.
• The all-in-cost ceiling for ECBs through the approval
route has been dispensed with up to June 30, 2009. |
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February 2009
• The Forex Swap facility was extended till March 31, 2010.
• Banks were allowed to apply special regulatory treatment for
accounts which were standard on September 1, 2008 and taken up for
restructuring up to January 31, 2009 even if these had turned
non-performing along this period. Subsequently, the time schedule for
taking up restructuring was extended up to March 31, 2009.
• The ceiling rate on export credit in foreign currency was
raised from LIBOR + 100 basis points to LIBOR + 350 basis points on
February 5, 2009 subject to the condition that the banks would not
levy any other charges.
• Correspondingly, the ceiling interest rate on the lines of
credit with overseas banks was also increased from 6 months LIBOR/
EURO LIBOR/ EURIBOR + 75 basis points to six months LIBOR/ EURO LIBOR/
EURIBOR + 150 basis points.
March 2009
• The repo rate under the LAF was reduced by 50 basis points from
5.5 per cent to 5.0 per cent with effect from March 5, 2009.
• The reverse repo rate under the LAF was reduced by 50 basis
points from 4.0 per cent to 3.5 per cent with effect from March 5,
2009.
• The MoU signed by the RBI with the Government on March 25, 2004
on the MSS was amended on February 26, 2009 to enable the transfer of
a part of the amount in the MSS cash account to the normal cash
account as part of the Government’s market borrowing programme for
meeting Government’s approved expenditure. An amount of Rs.12,000
crore was transferred from the MSS account to the normal cash account
of the Government of India on March 4, 2009 and an equivalent amount
of Government securities issued under the MSS formed a part of the
normal market borrowing of the Government of India. Based on the
emerging fund requirements of the Government, Rs.33,000 crore of MSS
would be de-sequestered against the approved market borrowing
programme or bought back in the fiscal year 2009-10.
• The Reserve Bank announced OMO purchase of government
securities of the order of Rs.80,000 crore in the first half of
2009-10, of which Rs.40,000 crore is envisaged for the first quarter
of 2009-10.
• The facility of providing liquidity support to meet the
temporary liquidity mismatches for eligible non-banking non-deposit
taking systematically important financial companies (NBFCs-ND-SI),
which was initially available for any paper issued up to March 31,
2009 was extended for any paper issued up to June 30, 2009.
Accordingly, the SPV would cease to make fresh purchases after
September 30, 2009 and would recover all dues by December 31, 2009. |
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Annex II
G-20 Working Group on Enhancing Sound
Regulation
and Strengthening Transparency: Current Status of the
Reserve Bank on the Recommendations
Measures for strengthening the
regulation of the financial system were considered by the G-20 Working
Group on Enhancing Sound Regulation and Strengthening Transparency.
The recommendations of the Group and the status with regard to the
relevant items for India are set out below.
System-wide Approach to Financial Regulation
Recommendation 1
As a supplement to their core mandate, the mandates of
all national financial regulators, central banks, and oversight
authorities, and of all international financial bodies and standard
setters (IASB, BCBS, IAIS and IOSCO) should take account of financial
system stability.
• Over the last few years, financial stability has emerged as a
key objective of the Reserve Bank’s policy. Accordingly, several
measures have been taken in recent years to promote financial
stability. As recommended by the Committee on Financial Sector
Assessment (CFSA), a Financial Stability Unit is being set up.
Recommendation 2
Within each country, there should be an effective
mechanism for appropriate domestic financial sector authorities to
jointly assess the systemic risks across the financial system and to
co-ordinate the domestic policy response to limit the build-up in
systemic risk. The structure of this coordinating mechanism should be
transparent, with clear assignments of roles, responsibilities and
accountability for each authority.
• In India, the High Level Co-ordination Committee on Financial
Markets (HLCCFM) provides a co-ordination mechanism among financial
sector regulators, viz., Reserve Bank of India (RBI),
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), Insurance Regulatory
and Development Authority (IRDA) and Provident Fund Regulatory and
Development Authority (PFRDA). It is supported by other technical
committees/sub-committees, which examine issues relating to entities
under various regulators that have cross-sector implications.
• There are separate technical committees for RBI regulated
entities, SEBI regulated entities and IRDA regulated entities. These
committees review capital market related developments and based on an
early warning system attempt to identify any unusual developments that
may require co-ordinated action. Exchange-traded currency futures and
interest rate futures, financial conglomerate monitoring framework,
crisis management group and a corporate bond and securitisation
advisory committee have been introduced through co-ordination of
inter-regulatory agencies.
Recommendation 3
Financial sector authorities should have suitable
macroprudential tools to address systemic vulnerabilities. |
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• The Reserve Bank has been using various macro-prudential tools
to address banking system risks. For instance, during the expansionary
phase of 2004-07, the Reserve Bank took various measures to restrict
unbridled growth of credit. These included increased provisioning for
standard advances and increased risk weights in respect of certain
asset classes. However, subsequently, during slow credit growth phase
beginning November 2008, those counter-cyclical measures were
reversed. The Reserve Bank will continue to make efforts to develop
and use further macro-prudential tools and would also consider using
any tools that may be developed or recommended by international
standard setting bodies.
Recommendation 4
The expanded FSF, together with the IMF, should create
an effective mechanism for key financial authorities in each country
to regularly come together around an international table to jointly
assess the systemic risks across the global financial system and to
coordinate policy responses.
• The G-20 has redesignated the Financial Stability Forum (FSF)
to Financial Stability Board (FSB) and its membership has, inter
alia, been enlarged to include, all G-20 member countries,
including India. The Reserve Bank, the Government of India and the
SEBI look forward to contributing actively and effectively to the work
and initiatives of the FSB and the BCBS.
Scope of Regulation
Recommendation 5
All systemically important financial institutions,
markets and instruments should be subject to an appropriate degree of
regulation and oversight, consistently applied and proportionate to
their local and global systemic importance. Non-systemically important
financial institutions, markets and instruments could also be subject
to some form of registration requirement or oversight, depending on
the type and degree of risk posed, for example for the integrity or
efficiency of markets.
National authorities should have the authority to
expand the perimeter of regulation in a timely way, recognizing that
it may vary across countries and through time.
• Banks, which form the largest segment of the Indian financial
system, are closely regulated by the Reserve Bank. In recent years,
the Reserve Bank has extended its detailed prudential regulation to
systemically important non-deposit taking NBFCs (NBFCs-ND-SI) also.
The Reserve Bank oversees the payment and settlement systems,
regulates money markets, foreign exchange market and government
securities market.
• Issues relating to expansion of the perimeter of regulation to
those institutions which are not prudentially regulated and are
systemically important could be deliberated in the HLCCFM.
Recommendation 6
The systemic importance of financial institutions, markets
and instruments depends on a wide range of factors, including their
size, leverage, interconnectedness, as well as funding mismatches.
The IMF, in consultation with the BIS and the expanded FSF and other
bodies, should jointly develop a common international framework and
guidelines to help national authorities assess whether a financial
institution, market or an instrument is systemically important as
consistently as possible across jurisdictions. |
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• The Reserve Bank is committed to follow sound international
practices and standards. When a common international framework is
available to help national authorities to assess whether a financial
institution, market or an instrument is systemically important, the
Reserve Bank will use the framework to further sharpen its focus with
regard to the supervision of those institutions considered
systemically important in consultation with the Government and other
regulatory authorities, as necessary, consistent with the legal
framework.
Recommendation 7
Large complex financial institutions require
particularly robust oversight given their systemic importance, which
arises in part from their size and interconnectedness (or correlation)
with other institutions, and from their influence on markets.
• Following the report on financial conglomerates (FCs), a
monitoring mechanism for the identified FCs has been in place since
2004 in co-operation with other regulators. Since April 2005,
the FC monitoring mechanism has been further strengthened with the
introduction of half-yearly discussion with the CEOs of the major
group entities within the FC.
• As indicated in the Mid-term Review of October 2008, an
‘approach paper’ on the supervision of financial conglomerates has
since been prepared by an Internal Group. The recommendations of the
Group are being examined from the regulatory and supervisory
perspectives for initiating appropriate action.
• As part of its endeavour to strengthen the supervision of
banking groups, the Reserve Bank extended the major elements of
prudential regulations, viz., capital adequacy and exposure
norms to all the subsidiaries of commercial banks in 2003.
Recommendation 8
The boundaries of the regulatory framework should be
reviewed periodically within national jurisdictions, in light of
financial innovation and broader trends in the financial system.
International bodies will promote good practice and consistent
approaches in this area.
• The Reserve Bank regularly interacts with other regulators of
the financial system within the national jurisdiction, viz.,
SEBI, the securities regulator, IRDA, the insurance regulator and
PFRDA, the regulator of pension funds. The Reserve Bank has also been
associated with various international bodies such as G-20 and the BIS,
and now also with the FSB and the BCBS.
• The issue of review of the boundaries of the regulatory
framework will be kept in focus, both in the interaction with sectoral
regulators within the national jurisdiction and with international
bodies.
Oversight of Credit Rating Agencies
Recommendation 9
All credit rating agencies whose ratings are used for
regulatory purposes should be subject to a regulatory oversight regime
that includes registration and that requires compliance with the
substance of the IOSCO Code of Conduct Fundamentals. National
authorities should obtain the authority to enforce compliance and
require changes to a rating agency’s practices and procedures for
managing conflicts of interest and for assuring the transparency and
quality of the rating process. |
|
• In India, all credit rating agencies are registered with the
SEBI. The Reserve Bank has accorded accreditation to four credit
rating agencies registered with the SEBI for the limited purpose of
using their ratings for assigning risk weights within the framework of
the Basel II Accord which has been implemented by all banks as at the
end of March 2009. Prior to the accreditation, the Reserve Bank had
undertaken a review of the rating agencies’ practices and procedures
to ensure that they comply with the criteria prescribed for
accreditation in the Basel II framework.
• Since the Indian banking system has migrated to the Basel II
framework, there is a need to review the performance of the credit
rating agencies for continuation of the accreditation, especially by
looking at the latest data relating to cumulative default rate and
transition matrix of the rating agencies. The Reserve Bank will liaise
with the SEBI on the issue of rating agencies’ adherence to the IOSCO
Code of Conduct Fundamentals.
Private Pools of Capital
Recommendation 10
Private pools of capital, including hedge funds, can
be a source of risk owing to their combined size in the market, their
use of leverage and maturity mismatches, and their connectedness with
other parts of the financial system. They or their managers should
therefore be required to register with financial authorities and
disclose appropriate information to assess the risks they pose.
• In India, venture capital funds and mutual funds are registered
and regulated by the SEBI. Hedge funds do not operate in India at
present. The Reserve Bank proposes to issue a paper on prudential
issues in banks’ floating and managing private pools of capital to
finalise the regulatory guidelines.
Transparent Assessment of Regulatory Regimes
Recommendation 11
All G-20 members should commit to undertake a
Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) report and to publish its
conclusions. National authorities may also periodically undertake a
self-assessment of their regulatory frameworks based on
internationally agreed methodologies and tools.
• India first participated in an FSAP in 2001 conducted by
the IMF and the World Bank and also associated with the independent
assessment of standards and codes by the Fund/Bank. It also conducted
a self-assessment of compliance with international standards and codes
in 2002 and its review in 2004 and put these reports in public domain.
Since the last FSAP in 2001, India has undertaken a series of ongoing
reforms in the financial sector aimed at improving its soundness,
resilience and depth. India has completed a comprehensive
self-assessment of the financial sector in 2009 under a Committee on
Financial Sector Assessment (Chairman: Dr. Rakesh Mohan and
Co-Chairman: Shri Ashok Chawla) based on the IMF-WB methodology. The
assessment, comprising six volumes, has been published and put in the
public domain along with the comments of the internationally acclaimed
Peer Reviewers on March 30, 2009. The Reserve Bank will set up a Task
Force to take steps for implementation of the recommendations of the
two G-20 Working Groups viz., Enhancing Sound Regulations and
Strengthening Transparency, and Reinforcing International Co-operation
and Promoting Integrity in Financial Markets and will also
continuously monitor the implementation. The Task Force will also look
into all the issues that have arisen and what follow-up actions
relevant to the Reserve Bank need to be taken regarding the recently
released report of the Committee on Financial Sector Assessment. The
Task Force would suggest an implementation schedule for every quarter
on a rolling basis. |
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Procyclicality
Recommendation 12
The FSF and other bodies, particularly the BCBS,
should develop and implement supervisory and regulatory approaches to
mitigate procyclicality in the financial system by promoting the
build-up of capital buffers during the economic expansion and by
dampening the adverse interaction between fair valuation, leverage and
maturity mismatches in times of stress.
• As against the Basel norm for minimum CRAR of 8 per cent, in
India, banks are required to maintain a minimum CRAR of 9 per cent.
The overall CRAR of all scheduled commercial banks continued to be
strong and it was at 13 per cent at the end-March 2008 and 13.1 per
cent at end-December 2008. The Reserve Bank recognises the need for
mitigating the element of procyclicality embedded in the regulatory
norms as it may exacerbate cyclical trends. With this objective in
view, the Reserve Bank has been employing a menu of macroprudential
tools to mitigate the impact of procyclicality.
• FSB and member bodies, BCBS and CGFS have been entrusted with
the work of developing regulatory and supervisory approaches to
mitigate procyclicality. They are expected to develop a strategic plan
by Fall 2009. India will take further action in this regard as per
global consensus emerging from the work of international bodies.
Recommendation 13
Accounting standard setters should strengthen
accounting recognition of loan loss provisions by considering
alternative approaches for recognizing and measuring loan losses that
incorporate a broader range of available credit information. They
should also examine changes to relevant standards to dampen adverse
dynamics associated with fair value accounting, including improvements
to valuations when data or modelling is weak. Accounting standards
setters and prudential supervisors should work together to identify
solutions that are consistent with the complementary objectives of
promoting the stability of the financial sector and of providing
transparency of economic results in financial reports.
• The Reserve Bank introduced the asset classification and loan
provisioning norms in the year 1991-92 which prescribe the minimum
provisioning based on classification of assets. Certain areas of
difference exist between the requirements of accounting standards in
respect of loan loss provisioning (accounting perspective) and the
Reserve Bank’s present regulatory approach and the Basel II approach
of calculating expected loan losses (regulatory perspective).
Internationally, there are attempts for a convergence in this regard
between the Accounting Task Force (ATF) of the BCBS and the IASB. The
Reserve Bank will fine tune its policies in tandem with developments
at international level in this regard.
• The Reserve Bank has, over the years, issued guidelines on
valuation of various instruments/assets in conformity with the
international best practices while keeping India-specific conditions
in view. In order to encourage market discipline, the Reserve Bank has
developed a set of disclosure requirements which allow the market
participants to assess key pieces of information on capital adequacy,
risk exposure, risk assessment processes and key business parameters
which provide a consistent and understandable disclosure framework
that enhances comparability. Banks are also required to comply with
the Accounting Standard (AS) on disclosure of accounting policies
issued by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI). |
|
Capital
Recommendation 14
Capital should serve as an effective buffer to absorb
losses over the cycle, so as to protect both the solvency of financial
institutions in the event of losses, and their ability to lend.
In the near term, capital buffers above required
minimums should be allowed to decline in response to deteriorating
economic conditions and credit quality, and urgent consideration
should be given to measures that would facilitate access to additional
private sector capital in the downturn.
Once conditions in the financial system have
recovered, the adequacy of the international standard for the minimum
level of capital for banks should be reviewed and the quality and
global consistency of capital should be enhanced. In addition,
capital buffers above minimum requirements and loan-loss provisions
should be built up in good times in order to enhance the ability of
regulated financial institutions to withstand large shocks.
• Once conditions in the global financial system recover, the
Reserve Bank would consider enhancing the minimum capital standards in
tandem with the proposals at the international level. The build-up of
capital and provisioning buffers in good times will be encouraged by
the Reserve Bank so that capital can absorb unexpected losses and be
drawn down during difficult times.
Recommendation 15
G-20 leaders should support the progressive adoption
of the Basel II capital framework, which will continue to be improved
on an ongoing basis, across the G-20.
• All commercial banks in India were Basel II compliant as on
March 31, 2009. Initially the base approach of the Basel II framework
have been adopted. The Reserve Bank has placed on its website a draft
circular giving an indicative timeframe for implementation of the
advanced approach of the Basel II framework. The enhancement to
current Basel II framework by the international standard setting
bodies will be considered for implementation as appropriate.
Liquidity
Recommendation 16
Prudential supervisors and central banks should
deliver a global framework for promoting stronger liquidity buffers at
banks, including cross-border institutions, to ensure that they can
withstand prolonged periods of market and funding liquidity stress.
• Indian banks have a significant holding of liquid instruments
as they are required to maintain cash reserve ratio and statutory
liquidity ratio (5 per cent and 24 per cent of their net demand and
time liabilities, as at present). The substantial CRR/SLR holding
offers, in effect, a good liquidity buffer. There are prudential norms
governing unsecured overnight borrowings by banks and inter-bank
liabilities.
• The Reserve Bank has examined the issue of banks
establishing a more robust liquidity risk management framework that is
well integrated into the bank-wide risk management process by adopting
global liquidity planning. In this context, banks will be required to
integrate their various foreign currency assets and liabilities
positions from their branch operations in India with the rupee asset
liability position. |
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Infrastructure for OTC Derivatives
Recommendation 17
Financial institutions should continue to strengthen
the infrastructure supporting OTC derivatives markets. In the case of
credit derivatives, this includes standardizing contracts to
facilitate their clearing through a central counterparty. National
authorities should enhance incentives as needed for the use of central
counterparties to clear OTC credit derivatives.
Recommendation 18
Central counterparties should be subject to
transparent and effective oversight by prudential supervisors and
other relevant authorities, including central banks, and meet high
standards in terms of risk management, operational arrangements,
default procedures, fair access and transparency. The CPSS and IOSCO
should review their experiences in applying their recommendations for
central counterparties to derivatives.
• The CCIL provides an institutional structure for the clearing
and settlement of transactions undertaken in government securities,
money market instruments and foreign exchange products and has adopted
the core principles set by the CPSS and IOSCO. In October 2007, CCIL
has joined as a member of the CCP 12, an international organisation of
central counterparty (CCP) clearing organisations.
• CCIL’s role is being gradually extended to the OTC derivatives
segment, initially as a reporting platform and thereafter, covering
the settlement aspect.
• The Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007 has designated the
Reserve Bank as the authority to regulate and supervise the payment
and settlement systems in the country.
• The netting procedure and settlement finality, earlier governed
by contractual agreement/s, have been accorded legal recognition under
the Act. The Reserve Bank is empowered to issue directions and
guidelines to the system providers, prescribe the duties to be
performed by them and audit and inspect their systems/premises.
• The recommendations of the CPSS and the IOSCO when available
will be applied as appropriate to the CCIL.
Compensation Schemes and Risk Management
Recommendation 19
Large financial institutions should ensure that their
compensation frameworks are consistent with their long-term goals and
with prudent risk-taking. As such, the Boards of Directors of
financial institutions should set clear lines of responsibility and
accountability throughout their organizations to ensure that the
design and operation of its remuneration system supports the firm’s
goals, including its overall risk tolerance. Shareholders may have a
role in this process. Boards should also ensure there are appropriate
mechanisms for monitoring remuneration schemes.
Recommendation 20
In order to promote incentives for prudent risk taking,
each financial institution must review its compensation framework to
ensure it follows sound practice principles developed by the FSF.
These include the need for remuneration systems to provide incentives
consistent with the firm’s long-term goals, to be adjusted for the
risk taken by employees, and for the variable components of
compensation to vary symmetrically according to performance. |
|
Recommendation 21
Prudential supervisors should enhance their oversight
of compensation schemes by taking the design of remuneration systems
into account when assessing risk management practices. The BCBS
should more explicitly integrate this dimension in its guidance for
the assessment of risk management practices by national prudential
supervisors.
• In terms of Section 35 B of the Banking Regulation Act,
1949 banks in the private sector and foreign banks in India are
required to obtain the approval of the Reserve Bank for remuneration
payable to their CEOs (the remuneration of public sector bank CEOs is
fixed by the Government of India).
• While devising the total remuneration package (including
all perquisites and bonus) of CEOs and whole-time directors, Boards of
private banks are required to ensure that the total package is
reasonable in the light of industry norms including size of the
business in India. The Compensation Committee which looks into the
remuneration issue is required to have adequate representation of
independent directors and directors, if any, representing major
institutional shareholders in India. Remuneration of foreign banks’
CEOs is mainly driven by the policies of their head offices.
• The Reserve Bank would recommend the implementation of the
sound procedures/principles developed by the FSB for financial
institutions regarding the compensation packages.
Transparency
Recommendation 22
Accounting standard setters should accelerate efforts
to reduce the complexity of accounting standards for financial
instruments and enhance presentation standards to allow the users of
financial statements to better assess the uncertainty surrounding the
valuation of financial instruments.
• International Accounting Standards/International Financial
Reporting Standards (IAS/IFRS) are adopted as a basis for formulation
of Indian standards and due consideration is given to local customs,
usage, practices, legal and regulatory environment. The Reserve Bank
has taken a proactive role in the area of adherence by banks to the
Accounting Standards. The Reserve Bank also actually participates in
the standard setting process through its nominees in the Accounting
Standards Board and the National Advisory Committee on Accounting
Standards.
• IASB is in the process of issuing a new globally accepted
standard in place of the existing financial instruments standard (IAS
39 Financial Instruments: Recognition and Measurement) that
would address issues arising from the financial crisis in a
comprehensive manner. Implementation of the standard in the Indian
context will arise after it is finalised by IASB and adopted by ICAI
as a part of its convergence programme.
• The Reserve Bank has, over the years, issued guidelines on
valuation of various instruments/assets in conformity with the
international best practices while keeping India-specific conditions
in view.
• The securitisation framework in India is considered to be
reasonably prudent and has been able to minimise the incentives that
have led to the problems which surfaced in the current crisis.
|
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Recommendation 23
The IASB should enhance its efforts to facilitate the
global convergence towards a single set of high-quality accounting
standards by sharing the experience of countries that have completed
this process and by providing technical assistance.
• The recently published report of the CFSA on India’s financial
sector assessment has stated that the Indian accounting standards are
generally in alignment with international accounting standards, except
for some modifications to suit local customs, usages and level of
development in the country. There has been significant progress in
the area of convergence of accounting standards. The Indian accounting
standards are expected to be fully convergent with IFRSs with effect
from April 1, 2011 when IFRSs are likely to be adopted in India for
listed and other public interest entities.
Enforcement
Recommendation 24
The effective enforcement of regulation should be a
priority of all financial regulators. As such, national financial
regulators and oversight authorities should ensure the effectiveness
of their enforcement activities and that appropriate resources are
available for monitoring the application of regulation and for
prosecuting offenders. The enforcement function should be independent
from other activities or from external influences.
• Regulations issued by the Reserve Bank are monitored by its
supervisory department. The Banking Regulation Act, 1949 has
prescribed extensive penalties for non submission or willful omission
of information, for making false statements, and for not following
directions issued by the Reserve Bank. Apart from this, the Reserve
Bank can impose penalties under specific powers granted to it under
the Act. Similar provisions exist in the Credit Information Companies
(Regulation) Act, 2005 and the Payment and Settlement Systems Act,
2007. The penalties imposed by the Reserve Bank under the BR Act are
placed in public domain.
Technical Assistance and Capacity Building in Emerging
Market Economies
Recommendation 25
Recognizing that the degree of development of
financial systems varies considerably across the G20, national
authorities should commit to assist each other in enhancing their
capacity to strengthen regulatory frameworks. In addition, IOSCO, the
IAIS and the BCBS should have the appropriate capacity to provide
technical assistance. The needs of emerging market economies deserve
particular consideration.
• India has been striving for adopting the international best
practices, tailored to country-specific conditions. Accordingly, the
capacity building of all stakeholders has been progressively upgraded.
The Reserve Bank has also conducted several international seminars
often in collaboration with international bodies, to upgrade the skill
levels in various developing economies. The Reserve Bank will continue
such efforts.
G-20 Leaders’ Declaration
The other important elements for strengthening the
financial system as contained in the G-20 Leaders’ declaration are:
International Cooperation |
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To establish the remaining supervisory colleges for significant cross
border firms by June 2009 building on 28 already in place.
• India has been actively participating in supervisory colleges
conducted by overseas home regulators of foreign banks operating in
India. No Indian bank has significant presence in foreign
jurisdictions so as to render them systemically important there. As
and when Indian banks attain critical level of operations, the Reserve
Bank will consider convening supervisory colleges.
To implement the FSF principles for cross-border
crisis management immediately, and that home authorities of each major
international financial institutions should ensure that the group of
authorities with a common interest in that financial institution meet
at least annually;
To support continued efforts by the IMF, FSB, World
Bank, and BCBS to develop an international framework for cross-border
bank resolution arrangements;
• An Internal Working Group constituted to lay
down the road map for adoption of a suitable framework for
cross-border supervision and supervisory co-operation with overseas
regulators has submitted its report in January 2009. The
recommendations of the Group are being examined for initiating further
action.
• Further, an Inter-departmental Group is examining additional
areas/issues which need to be brought under supervisory focus,
including modalities for on-site supervision of overseas branches and
subsidiaries of Indian banks. The group is expected to submit its
report by end May, 2009.
• As and when international framework is developed by
international agencies/standard setters, India will adopt the same in
line with country specific needs.
Tax havens and non-cooperative jurisdictions
Increased disclosure requirements on the part of
taxpayers and financial institutions to report transactions involving
non-cooperative jurisdictions.
• In India, banks have been advised to be extremely cautious
while continuing relationships with respondent banks located in
countries with poor know-your-customer (KYC) standards and countries
identified as ‘non-co-operative’ in the fight against money laundering
and terrorist financing.
• The AML/CFT guidelines issued by the Reserve Bank are in
consonance with the FATF recommendations and the Reserve Bank would
continue to incorporate in its regulations latest international best
practices. |
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Macroeconomic
and Monetary Deve.: 1st Qrt. Review 2008-09
28.07.2008
Dear
Friends,
Good wishes. And the sky has not fallen on our heads.
Inspite of plenty of dark clouds , a ray of silver sun-shine is reflected
in the
Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments First Quarter Review 2008-09
released by the Reserve Bank of India today evening.
Full text can be viewed at :http://rbi.org.in/scripts/AnnualPubl...date=7/29/2008
Happy Investments
RAJESH H DHRUVA
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Reserve Bank today released the document “Macroeconomic and Monetary
Developments: First Quarter Review 2008-09” to serve as a backdrop to
the First Quarter Review of Annual Policy Statement for 2008-09 being
announced on July 29, 2008.
The highlights of this Review are:
The Real Economy
According to the revised estimates released by the Central Statistical
Organisation (CSO) in May 2008, the real GDP growth was placed at 9.0 per
cent during 2007-08 as compared with 9.6 per cent in 2006-07. The
deceleration in growth was on account of industry and services, offset
partly by recovery in agriculture.
According to the Fourth Advance Estimates, the foodgrains production
during 2007-08 was placed at an all-time high of 230.7 million tonnes,
exhibiting an increase of 6.2 per cent over the previous year (217.3
million tonnes) predominantly on account of kharif foodgrains production.
Barring sugarcane, all foodgrains and non-foodgrains are estimated to
reach an all-time record production during 2007-08.
During April-May 2008 the index of industrial production recorded
year-on-year expansion of 5.0 per cent as compared with 10.9 per cent
during April-May 2007. The manufacturing sector recorded growth of 5.3 per
cent during April-May 2008 (11.8 per cent during April-May 2007), while
the electricity sector recorded growth of 1.7 per cent (9.0 per cent
during April-May 2007).
The infrastructure sector recorded growth of 3.5 per cent during April-May
2008 (6.9 per cent during April-May 2007), reflecting deceleration in all
the sectors, except coal and crude petroleum.
Available information on the leading indicators of services sector
activity during 2008-09 so far suggest acceleration in growth in respect
of some indicators such as railway revenue earning freight traffic,
tourist arrivals and export cargo handled by civil aviation as compared
with corresponding period of 2007-08. On the other hand, growth
decelerated in respect of cargo handled at major ports, various indicators
of civil aviation, excluding export cargo and commercial vehicles
production.
Fiscal Situation
Available information on Central Government finances during April-May 2008
indicates that revenue deficit and gross fiscal deficit were higher than a
year ago, both in absolute terms and as proportion to budget estimates.
Gross primary deficit in April-May 2008 was also higher than a year ago.
The widening of fiscal deficit of the Central Government during April-May
2008 was mainly on account of a sharp rise in plan expenditure over
April-May 2007. On the other hand, non-plan expenditure was contained
mainly due to moderation in the growth of interest payments and major
subsidies, and decline in defence expenditure.
Gross and net market borrowings (dated securities and 364-day Treasury
Bills) of the Central Government during 2008-09 (up to July 18, 2008)
amounted to Rs.77,809 crore and Rs.42,819 crore, respectively, accounting
for 44.3 per cent and 43.3 per cent, respectively, of the estimated market
borrowings for the year. During the corresponding period of the previous
year, gross and net borrowings accounted for 40.5 per cent and 33.5 per
cent, respectively.
The cash balance of the Central Government remained in surplus during
2008-09 (up to July 18, 2008). The surplus cash balance of the Central
Government as on July 18, 2008 was Rs. 19,767 crore.
During the current year so far (up to July 18, 2008), eight State
Governments raised Rs.8,712 crore (14.8 per cent of gross allocation for
the year) through auctions with a cut-off yield in the range 8.39-9.81 per
cent as compared with Rs.7,153 crore by 13 State Governments (cut-off
yield ranging from 8.30-8.57 per cent) during the corresponding period of
the previous year.
The average daily utilisation of WMA and overdraft by the States during
2008-09 (up to July 18, 2008) was Rs.351 crore as compared with Rs. 736
crore during the corresponding period of 2007-08.
The average investments by the States in Treasury Bills during 2008-09 (up
to July 18, 2008) amounted to Rs. 81,750 crore as compared with Rs. 70,608
crore during the corresponding period of 2007-08.
Monetary and Liquidity Conditions
Growth in broad money (M3), year-on-year (y-o-y), was 20.5 per cent (Rs.
7,04,046 crore) on July 4, 2008 as compared with 21.8 per cent (Rs.
6,17,118 crore) a year ago.
Aggregate deposits of banks, y-o-y, expanded by 20.7 per cent (Rs.6,07,668
crore) on July 4, 2008 as compared with 23.1 per cent (Rs. 5,50,653 crore)
a year ago.
Non-food credit by scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) expanded by 25.9 per
cent (Rs.4,85,709 crore), y-o-y, as on July 4, 2008 as compared with 24.6
per cent (Rs.3,69,109 crore) a year ago.
Growth in reserve money, y-o-y, was 26.5 per cent on July 18, 2008 as
compared with 29.0 per cent a year ago. Adjusted for the first round
impact of the hike in the cash reserve ratio, reserve money growth was
18.4 per cent as compared with 21.6 per cent a year ago.
Liquidity conditions continued to be influenced by movements in cash
balances of the Central Government and capital flows. The Reserve Bank
continued with the policy of active management of liquidity through
appropriate use of cash reserve ratio (CRR) and open market operations (OMO),
including MSS and LAF and other policy instruments at its command
flexibly.
Price Situation
Inflation has emerged as a global phenomenon in recent months.
Headline inflation firmed up further in major economies during the first
quarter of 2008-09, reflecting the combined impact of higher food and fuel
prices as well as strong demand conditions, especially in emerging
markets. Notwithstanding inflation remaining above the targets/comfort
zones, the monetary policy responses during the quarter were mixed in view
of growth implications of the persistence of financial market turmoil
following the US sub-prime crisis.
Global commodity prices firmed up further during the first quarter of
2008-09, led by a sharp increase in the prices of crude oil as well as
food and agricultural raw materials. Metal prices, which had increased
during 2007-08, witnessed some moderation during the first quarter of
2008-09. International crude oil prices, represented by the West Texas
Intermediate (WTI), touched a high of US $ 145.3 a barrel level on July 3,
2008. Food prices firmed up further during the first quarter of 2008-09,
led by rice, maize and oilseeds/edible oils, reflecting surging demand
(both consumption demand and demand for non-food uses such as bio-fuels
production) and low stocks of major crops.
Mirroring inflation trends in many advanced as well as emerging economies,
various measures of inflation in India have also risen significantly since
the beginning of this calendar year. Inflation based on the wholesale
price index (WPI), increased from 7.7 per cent at end-March 2008 to 11.9
per cent by July 12, 2008, reflecting the impact of some pass-through of
higher international crude oil prices to domestic prices as well as
continued increase in the prices of iron and steel, basic heavy inorganic
chemicals, machinery and machinery tools, oilseeds/edible oils/oil cakes
and raw cotton on account of strong demand, international commodity price
pressures and lower domestic 2007-08 rabi production of oilseeds. The
seasonal hardening of vegetables prices as well as increase in prices of
textiles has also contributed to inflation during 2008-09 so far.
Primary articles prices, y-o-y, increased by 10.1 per cent on July 12,
2008 on top of 11.1 per cent a year ago (it was 9.7 per cent at end-March
2008), reflecting increase in prices of food articles, especially rice,
wheat, fruits and milk, and non-food articles such as oilseeds and raw
cotton.
Fuel group inflation increased to 16.9 per cent on July 12, 2008 from 6.8
per cent at end-March 2008 (and a decline of 1.4 per cent a year ago),
mainly reflecting the effect of some hikes in the prices of petrol, diesel
and LPG in June 2008 as well as continued increase (15-51 per cent) in the
prices of freely priced petroleum products such as naphtha, furnace oil,
aviation turbine fuel, bitumen and lubricants over end-March 2008.
Manufactured products inflation, year-on-year, rose further to 10.7 per
cent on July 12, 2008 from 7.3 per cent at end-March 2008 (and 4.8 per
cent a year ago), reflecting increase in the prices of edible oils, oil
cakes, textiles, chemicals, basic metals, alloys and products, and
machinery and machine tools. Prices of sugar and grain mill products,
however, eased somewhat from end-March 2008.
Consumer price inflation increased further during the first quarter of
2008-09 mainly due to increase in food prices and services (represented by
the ‘miscellaneous’ group) prices. Various measures of consumer price
inflation were placed in the range of 6.8-8.8 per cent during May/June
2008 as compared with 6.0-7.9 per cent in March 2008 and 5.7-7.8 per cent
in June 2007.
Financial Markets
Global financial markets witnessed generally uncertain conditions during
April-July 2008. The financial market turbulence that had erupted in the
US sub-prime mortgage market in mid-2007 gradually deepened towards early
2008. There was a cautious return of investor risk tolerance in the credit
markets between mid-March 2008 and end-May 2008. Central banks continued
to work together and also individually to improve liquidity conditions in
financial markets. Financial markets, however, came under stress again in
June 2008 and thereafter.
Indian financial markets remained largely orderly during the first quarter
of 2008-09.
Interest rates in the money market mostly remained within the informal
corridor set by reverse repo and repo rates during the quarter. Interest
rates in the collateralised segment of the money market remained below the
call rate during the quarter.
In the foreign exchange market, the Indian rupee generally depreciated
against major currencies during the first quarter of 2008-09. The rupee
had appreciated during 2007-08.
Yields in the Government securities market hardened during the quarter.
Indian equity markets recovered somewhat during April-May 2008 but
declined thereafter in tandem with the trends in major international
equity markets as well as edging up of domestic inflation.
The External Economy
India’s balance of payments position remained comfortable during
2007-08. The merchandise trade deficit, on a balance of payments basis,
widened from US $ 63.2 billion in 2006-07 to US $ 90.1 billion in 2007-08.
As proportion to GDP, the trade deficit increased from 6.9 per cent to 7.7
per cent. Net surplus under invisibles (services, transfers and income
taken together) expanded to US $ 72.7 billion in 2007-08 from US $ 53.4
billion in 2006-07. The net invisible surplus offset 80.7 per cent of the
trade deficit during 2007-08 as compared with 84.5 per cent during
2006-07.
During 2007-08, the widening of the trade deficit, mainly led by imports,
resulted in a widening of current account deficit to US $ 17.4 billion
(1.5 per cent of GDP) from US $ 9.8 billion (1.1 per cent of GDP) in
2006-07. The current account deficit was financed by capital flows which
remained large during 2007-08.
The strong momentum observed in FDI inflows during the year 2007-08
continued during 2008-09, with inflows during April-May 2008 amounting to
US $ 7.7 billion. In respect of FIIs, however, there were net outflows of
US $ 5.6 billion up to July 11, 2008. NRI deposits recorded net inflows of
US $ 292 million during April-May 2008 as against net outflows of US $ 559
million during April-May 2007.
According to the data released by the Directorate General of Commercial
Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S), India’s merchandise exports
posted a growth of 21.7 per cent during April-May 2008 (24.2 per cent
during April-May 2007). Imports grew at 31.8 per cent as compared with
37.9 per cent a year ago. Non-oil imports recorded an increase of 24.6 per
cent (43.8 per cent a year ago); oil imports increased by 48.6 per cent
during April-May 2008 as against 25.7 per cent in April-May 2007.
Merchandise trade deficit during April-May 2008 increased to US $ 20.7
billion from US $13.9 billion a year ago.
Foreign exchange reserves increased by US $ 110.5 billion during 2007-08
to US $ 309.7 billion. As on July 18, 2008, India’s foreign exchange
reserves were US $ 307.1 billion.
Alpana Killawala
Chief General Manager
Press Release : 2008-2009/119
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RBI Governor presented the First
Quarter Review of Annual Statement on Monetary Policy for the Year 2008-09
today.
Highlights
- Bank Rate kept
unchanged.
- Reverse Repo
Rate under LAF kept unchanged.
- Repo Rate
increased by 50 basis points from 8.5 per cent to 9.00 per cent.
- Cash Reserve
Ratio to be increased by 25 basis points to 9.0 per cent with effect
from the fortnight beginning August 30, 2008.
- GDP growth
projection for 2008-09 revised from the range of 8.0-8.5 per cent to
around 8.0 per cent, barring domestic or external shocks.
- While the policy
actions would aim to bring down the current intolerable level of
inflation to a tolerable level of below 5.0 per cent as soon as
possible and around 3.0 per cent over the medium-term, at this
juncture a realistic policy endeavour would be to bring down inflation
from the current level of about 11.0-12.0 per cent to a level close to
7.0 per cent by March 31, 2009.
- While there are
early signs of some moderation in money supply and deposit growth,
they continue to expand above the indicative projections warranting
continuous vigilance and appropriate and timely policy responses.
- In view of the
evolving environment of heightened uncertainty in global markets and
the dangers of potential spillovers to domestic markets, liquidity
management will continue to receive priority in the hierarchy of
policy objectives over the period ahead.
- Barring the
emergence of any adverse and unexpected developments in various
sectors of the economy, assuming that capital flows are effectively
managed, and keeping in view the current assessment of the economy
including the outlook for growth and inflation, the overall stance of
monetary policy in 2008-09 will broadly continue to be:
- To ensure a
monetary and interest rate environment that accords high priority
to price stability, well-anchored inflation expectations and
orderly conditions in financial markets while being conducive to
continuation of the growth momentum.
- To respond
swiftly on a continuing basis to the evolving constellation of
adverse international developments and to the domestic situation
impinging on inflation expectations, financial stability and growth
momentum, with both conventional and unconventional measures, as
appropriate.
- To emphasise
credit quality as well as credit delivery, in particular, for
employment-intensive sectors, while pursuing financial inclusion.
Details
Dr. Y. Venugopal Reddy, Governor, today presented the First Quarter Review
of Annual Statement on Monetary Policy for the Year 2008-09. The Review
consists of three sections: I. Assessment of Macroeconomic and Monetary
Developments; II. Stance of Monetary Policy; and III. Monetary Measures.
Domestic
Developments
- Real GDP growth
in 2007-08 was revised upwards to 9.0 per cent by the Central
Statistical Organisation (CSO) in its end-May 2008 estimates from the
advance estimates of 8.7 per cent released in February 2008.
- Inflation,
measured by variations in the wholesale price index (WPI) on a
year-on-year basis, increased to 11.89 per cent as on July 12, 2008
from 7.75 per cent as at end-March 2008 and 4.76 per cent a year ago.
- On a
year-on-year basis, inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI)
for agricultural labourers and rural labourers increased to 8.8 per
cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively, in June 2008 from 7.8 per cent
and 7.5 per cent a year ago.
- Year-on-year
inflation based on CPI for industrial workers and urban non-manual
employees stood at 7.8 per cent and 6.8 per cent, respectively, in May
2008 as compared with 6.6 per cent and 6.8 per cent a year ago.
- The CPI-based
inflation measures have increased in the range of 2.0-3.2 percentage
points over their levels in January 2008.
- The price of the
Indian basket of crude oil increased from US $ 99.4 per barrel in
March 2008 to US $ 129.8 in June 2008 and further to US $ 141.5 on
July 3, 2008 before declining to US $ 121.9 on July 25, 2008.
- Money supply
(M3) increased by 20.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis on July 4,
2008, lower than 21.8 per cent a year ago.
- The year-on-year
growth in aggregate deposits of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) at
21.7 per cent (Rs.5,89,646 crore) up to July 4, 2008 was lower than
24.6 per cent (Rs.5,36,617 crore) a year ago.
- Up to July 4,
2008 non-food credit of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) rose by 25.9
per cent (Rs.4,85,709 crore) on a year-on-year basis, higher than 24.6
per cent (Rs.3,69,109 crore) a year ago.
- Public sector
oil marketing companies have been provided US $ 4.3 billion (Rs.19,325
crore) against oil bonds purchased under the Special Market Operation
(SMO) scheme up to July 25, 2008.
- The total
overhang of liquidity as reflected in the balances under the LAF, the
MSS and the Central Government’s cash balances taken together
declined from an average of Rs.2,42,370 crore in April 2008 to
Rs.2,12,201 crore in May 2008 and Rs.1,93,726 crore in June 2008 (with
an intra-year peak of Rs.2,93,048 crore on April 8, 2008) before
declining to Rs.1,45,200 crore on July 25, 2008.
- Financial
markets reflected the changes in liquidity conditions during the first
quarter of 2008-09.
- Yields in
the Government securities market hardened substantially during the
current financial year in both primary and secondary segments.
- Deposit rates of
SCBs increased, particularly at the longer end of the maturity
spectrum, during the first four months of 2008-09 (up to July 25).
- The equity
markets witnessed a major downturn in both the primary and secondary
segments during the current financial year so far, continuing the
moderation that had set in by early January 2008.
- Commercial
banks’ holdings of Government and other approved securities was 27.7
per cent of the banking system’s net demand and time liabilities (NDTL)
which was marginally lower than 27.8 per cent at end-March 2008 and
28.7 per cent a year ago.
- Gross market
borrowings of the Central Government through dated securities at
Rs.72,000 crore (Rs.73,000 crore a year ago) during 2008-09 so far (up
to July 25, 2008), constituted 41.0 per cent of the budget estimates
(BE) whereas net market borrowings at Rs.47,982 crore (Rs.45,232 crore
a year ago) constituted 48.5 per cent of the BE.
External
Developments
- Information
released by the DGCI&S indicates that exports increased by 21.7
per cent in US dollar terms during the first two months of the current
financial year, as compared with 24.2 per cent in the corresponding
period of the previous year. Imports rose by 31.8 per cent as compared
with 37.9 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
- While non-POL
imports moderated to 24.6 per cent from 43.8 per cent a year ago, POL
imports increased by 48.6 per cent on account of the surge in crude
oil prices as compared with 25.7 per cent in the corresponding period
of the previous year. As a result, the merchandise trade deficit
widened to US $ 20.7 billion during April-May 2008 from US $ 13.9
billion in the corresponding period last year.
- Foreign exchange
reserves declined marginally by US $ 2.6 billion during the current
financial year so far and stood at US $ 307.1 billion on July 18,
2008.
- During the
current financial year up to July 25, 2008 the rupee depreciated by
5.4 per cent against the US dollar, by 5.0 per cent against the euro,
by 5.2 per cent against the pound sterling and by 1.3 per cent against
the Japanese yen.
Global Developments
- According to the
update of World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) released in July 2008, global real GDP growth on a
purchasing power parity basis is expected to decelerate from 5.0 per
cent in 2007 to 4.1 per cent in 2008 (3.7 per cent in WEO, April 2008)
and further to 3.9 per cent in 2009 (3.8 per cent in WEO, April 2008).
- Inflation has
become a global phenomenon in recent months. Inflation pressures have
raised serious concerns in emerging market economies (EMEs) across
Asia, Latin America and Africa, mainly on account of supply-demand
imbalances in food, fuel and commodity markets.
- Prices of crude
oil, which have rebounded since July 2007, increased by 60.0 per cent
up to July 25, 2008 from their level a year ago. World oil markets
have been particularly tight during the first half of 2008, with
year-on-year growth in world oil consumption outstripping growth in
non-Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
production by over 1 million barrels per day.
- In the
global financial markets, sentiment has been adversely affected by
concerns relating to a deep and prolonged recession in the US,
somewhat alleviated by recent data on consumer sentiment, durable
goods orders, consumer spending and oil prices. In addition, losses to
the financial sector continue to mount in addition to rising
debtdefaults.
- Central banks
have continued to work together and to consult regularly on liquidity
conditions in financial markets.
- The confluence
of slowdown in growth and mounting inflation alongside financial
vulnerabilities has complicated the task of monetary authorities
across the world and rendered the future direction of policy setting
highly uncertain.
- Some central
banks that have tightened their policy rates in the recent months
include the ECB; the Reserve Bank of Australia; Bank Indonesia; Bank
of Thailand; the Banco Central de Chile; Banco Central do Brasil
and Banco de Mexico.
Overall Assessment
- Domestically,
aggregate demand pressures appear to be strongly in evidence,
exacerbated by the slack in supply response.
- The upsurge in
inflation during the current financial year reflects a combination of
forces at work: the pass-through of international crude prices to
domestic administered prices effected on June 5, 2008; inflationary
pressures in addition to crude oil prices; and movements in
international prices of key commodities indicating elevated upside
pressures for domestic prices of a number of commodities with
implications for the evolving scenario.
- There are some
signs of moderation in key monetary and banking aggregates in response
to monetary measures, which have withdrawn liquidity from the system
and tightened interest rates across the term structure.
- The rates of
money supply and deposit growth have started to moderate in consonance
since June, edging towards the trajectory set for 2008-09.
- The balancing of
monetary and liquidity conditions has not, however, impacted the
demand for bank credit which has accelerated on a year-on-year basis.
- Downside risks
to global economic prospects appear to have intensified since the
Annual Policy Statement of April 2008 with slowdown of growth
spreading from the US to several other advanced economies with housing
and labour markets weakening sharply.
- The deepening
financial turbulence in major financial centres has worsened the
macroeconomic outlook further by erosion of consumer and business
sentiment and tightening of financing conditions with indications that
a generalised credit squeeze may take hold.
- The impact of
the slowdown in developed economies on EMEs cannot but be adverse, but
it has so far been limited by the strength of domestic demand,
particularly investment, and consumption spending has remained stable.
- The slowing of
import demand from developed economies could, however, pose a risk to
the growth outlook for these economies.
- Inflation has
emerged as the biggest risk to the global outlook, having risen to
very high levels across the world, levels that have not been generally
seen for a couple of decades.
- Developed and
emerging economies alike are reporting multi-year highs in inflation,
driven mainly by escalating commodity prices, particularly of energy,
food and metals amidst growing concerns across economies that rising
food and energy prices are triggering a more generalised inflation
spiral through second-round effects.
- In the global
financial system, while a possible crisis in global finance seems to
have been averted, several vulnerabilities persist in the leading
financial centres heightening the uncertainty characterising the
outlook.
- Central bank
interventions in this context have also been extraordinary and on a
scale not seen since the Great Depression, demonstrating a resolve to
act decisively against threats to financial stability.
- In some
developed countries, the policy response to inflation has been
constrained by relatively overarching concerns for financial stability
in the context of the ongoing financial turmoil.
- In the overall
assessment, several risks looming over the global economy at the time
of the Annual Policy Statement of April 2008 have either materialised
or intensified with implications for every national economy, including
India, warranting heightened vigilance and stress testing of the
preparedness to deal with these developments.
Stance of Monetary
Policy for the Remaining Period of 2008-09
- Taking into
account aggregate demand management and supply prospects, the
projection of real GDP growth of the Indian economy in 2008-09 in the
range of 8.0 to 8.5 per cent as set out in the Annual Policy Statement
of April 2008 may prove to be optimistic and hence for policy
purposes, a projection of around 8.0 per cent appears a more realistic
central scenario at this juncture, barring domestic or external
shocks.
- While the policy
actions would aim to bring down the current intolerable level of
inflation to a tolerable level of below 5.0 per cent as soon as
possible and around 3.0 per cent over the medium-term, at this
juncture a realistic policy endeavour would be to bring down inflation
from the current level of about 11.0-12.0 per cent to a level close to
7.0 per cent by March 31, 2009.
- It is necessary
to moderate monetary expansion and plan for a rate of money supply
growth in the range of around 17.0 per cent in 2008-09 in consonance
with the outlook on growth and inflation so as to ensure macroeconomic
and financial stability in the period ahead.
- Consistent with
the projection of money supply, the growth in aggregate deposits in
2008-09 is now placed at around 17.5 per cent or around Rs.6,00,000
crore.
- The growth of
non-food credit including investments in bonds/debentures/shares of
public sector undertakings and private corporate sector and CP is
placed at around 20.0 per cent in 2008-09, as indicated in the Annual
Policy Statement, consistent with the monetary projections.
- In view of the
evolving environment of heightened uncertainty, volatility in global
markets and the dangers of potential spillovers to domestic equity and
currency markets, liquidity management will continue to receive
priority in the hierarchy of policy objectives over the period ahead.
- There is
headroom available with the Reserve Bank in terms of the flexibility
in the deployment of instruments, complemented by prudential
regulations and instruments for capital account management.
- In 2008-09 so
far, some banks that have expanded credit rapidly in relation to the
system level growth with attendant worsening of their credit-deposit
ratios are urged to review their business strategies so that they are
in a position to combine longer term viable financing with
profitability in operations, recognising the reality of business
cycles and countercyclical monetary policy responses.
- If necessary,
the Reserve Bank would consider undertaking supervisory review of
those select banks which are over extended in terms of their credit
portfolios relative to their sources of funds.
- Banks should
focus on stricter credit appraisals on a sectoral basis, monitor loan
to value ratios and generally ensure the health of credit portfolios
on a durable basis without encountering undue asset-liability
mismatches.
- In view of
growing off-budget liabilities and enhanced expenditures on subsidies,
loan waivers and salaries in the rest of the year, fiscal developments
warrant close and careful monitoring.
- The overriding
priority for monetary policy is to eschew any further intensification
of inflationary pressures and to firmly anchor inflation expectations.
- As stated in the
Annual Policy Statement of April 2008, it is critical at this juncture
to demonstrate on a continuing basis a determination to act
decisively, effectively and swiftly to curb any signs of adverse
developments in regard to inflation expectations.
- In view of the
above unprecedented uncertainties and dilemmas, it is important to
take informed judgements with regard to the timing and magnitude of
policy actions; and such judgements need to have the benefit of
evaluation of incoming information on a continuous basis.
- The Reserve Bank
will continue with its policy of active demand management of liquidity
through appropriate use of the CRR stipulations and open market
operations (OMO) including the MSS and LAF, using all the policy
instruments at its disposal flexibly, as and when the situation
warrants.
- Barring the
emergence of any adverse and unexpected developments in various
sectors of the economy, assuming that capital flows are effectively
managed, and keeping in view the current assessment of the economy
including the outlook for growth and inflation, the overall stance of
monetary policy in 2008-09 will broadly continue to be:
- To ensure a
monetary and interest rate environment that accords high priority
to price stability, well-anchored inflation expectations and
orderly conditions in financial markets while being conducive to
continuation of the growth momentum.
- To respond
swiftly on a continuing basis to the evolving constellation of
adverse international developments and to the domestic situation
impinging on inflation expectations, financial stability and growth
momentum, with both conventional and unconventional measures, as
appropriate.
- To emphasise
credit quality as well as credit delivery, in particular, for
employment-intensive sectors, while pursuing financial inclusion.
Monetary Measures
- Bank Rate kept
unchanged at 6.0 per cent.
- Reverse Repo
Rate under the LAF kept unchanged at 6.00 per cent.
- The fixed Repo
Rate under the LAF increased by 50 basis points from 8.5 per cent to
9.0 per cent with immediate effect.
- The Reserve Bank
retains the option to conduct overnight or longer term repo/reverse
repo under the LAF depending on market conditions and other relevant
factors. The Reserve Bank will continue to use this flexibility
including the right to accept or reject tender(s) under the LAF,
wholly or partially, if deemed fit, so as to make efficient use of the
LAF in daily liquidity management.
- On a review of
the current liquidity situation, it is considered desirable to
increase the CRR by 25 basis points to 9.0 per cent with effect from
the fortnight beginning August 30, 2008.
The Mid-Term Review
of the Annual Policy Statement for the year 2008-09 will be announced on
October 24, 2008.
Alpana Killawala
Chief General Manager
Press Release:
2008-2009/122
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